Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Saturday, June 27, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Casey Schmitt
Casey Schmitt (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bryce Elder. The righty is stacking production at .491 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .564 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 49% of his trips. And Bryce Elder has been getting lit up by righties lately — .895 H+R+RBI per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Bryce Elder too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .585 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.647).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a strong bat at .509 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.636).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (98) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .492 into an arm tough on the same side (.333).
- Luis Arraez (SF) (98) vs RHP Bryce Elder: a strong bat at .504 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.892).
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (92) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .614 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.929).
- Donovan Walton (LAA) (91) vs RHP Jack Perkins: an excellent bat at .573 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.720), hot bat.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (88) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .574 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.929).
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Jared Jones has been getting lit up by righties — .592 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN).
- RHP Bryce Elder has been getting lit up by righties — .568 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting lit up by righties — .541 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Byron Buxton (MIN), Trevor Larnach (MIN), and Kody Clemens (MIN).
- RHP Cal Quantrill has been getting lit up by righties — .524 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .519 against righties this year.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .637 against righties this year.
- Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .618 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .603 against righties this year.
- Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .604 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Casey Schmitt finished with 2 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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