Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Saturday, June 27, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Casey Schmitt
Casey Schmitt (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bryce Elder. The righty is stacking production at .491 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .564 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 49% of his trips. And Bryce Elder has been getting lit up by righties lately — .895 H+R+RBI per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Bryce Elder too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .585 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.647).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a strong bat at .509 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.636).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (98) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .492 into an arm tough on the same side (.333).
- Luis Arraez (SF) (98) vs RHP Bryce Elder: a strong bat at .504 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.892).
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (92) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .614 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.929).
- Donovan Walton (LAA) (91) vs RHP Jack Perkins: an excellent bat at .573 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.720), hot bat.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (88) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .574 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.929).
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Jared Jones has been getting lit up by righties — .592 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN).
- RHP Bryce Elder has been getting lit up by righties — .568 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting lit up by righties — .541 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Byron Buxton (MIN), Trevor Larnach (MIN), and Kody Clemens (MIN).
- RHP Cal Quantrill has been getting lit up by righties — .524 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .519 against righties this year.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .637 against righties this year.
- Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .618 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .603 against righties this year.
- Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .604 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Casey Schmitt finished with 2 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.