Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is stacking production at .611 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .455 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 51% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tanner Gordon too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (100) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .527 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Andy Pages (LAD) (92) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .479 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.750).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (92) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .463 into an arm tough on the same side (.364), hot bat.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) (89) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .479 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (85) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a strong bat at .497 into an arm tough on the same side (.231).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (82) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .532 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (77) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an excellent bat at .604 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.433).
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Kevin Gausman has been getting lit up by righties — .649 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and Carson Benge (NYM).
- RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting lit up by righties — .625 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Kyle Stowers (MIA), and Owen Caissie (MIA).
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting lit up by lefties — .598 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL).
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting lit up by lefties — .532 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
Platoon edges to target
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .611 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .523 against righties this year.
- Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .505 against lefties this year.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .449 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .522 against righties this year.
Best parks for all-around production today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Liam Hicks (MIA) at 100.
How it played out
10 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Liam Hicks finished with 3 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays