Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Thursday, July 2, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Randy Vásquez. The lefty is stacking production at .563 (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year — and .806 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 57% of his trips. And Randy Vásquez has been getting lit up by righties lately — 1.208 H+R+RBI per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 12 career PA against Randy Vásquez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (99) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: an excellent bat at .561 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.571).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (99) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: an excellent bat at .607 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.571), hot bat.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (98) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .501 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.769), hitter's park.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (88) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: an excellent bat at .559 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (2.000).
- Javier Sanoja (MIA) (88) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .548 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.769), hitter's park.
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) (88) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .475 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.769), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (88) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: an excellent bat at .554 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.208).
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Randy Vásquez has been getting lit up by righties — .609 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD).
- RHP Stephen Kolek has been getting lit up by righties — .560 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB).
- RHP Dustin May has been getting lit up by righties — .558 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Drake Baldwin (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting lit up by righties — .543 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Javier Sanoja (MIA), and Esteury Ruiz (MIA).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .563 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .576 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .563 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .608 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .615 against righties this year.
Best parks for all-around production today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 98.
Lineup watch
162 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.