Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, April 24, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jameson Taillon. The lefty is going deep on .035 HR/PA against righties this year — and .043 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Jameson Taillon has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .115 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .188 in 16 career PA against Jameson Taillon, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (84) vs RHP Grant Holmes: big-time bat at .052 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.048), due to bounce back.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (83) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: real bat at .047 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (74) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.080), hot bat.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (72) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: real bat at .048 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083), hot bat.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (65) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (63) vs RHP Luis Severino: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.065).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (62) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .035 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .119 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .053 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .115 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.