Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, April 25, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Colin Rea. The lefty is going deep on .034 HR/PA against righties this year — and .041 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Colin Rea has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .273 in 11 career PA against Colin Rea. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (91) vs RHP Jake Irvin: real bat at .046 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.044), hot bat.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (83) vs RHP Mike Burrows: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (69) vs RHP Bailey Ober: real bat at .049 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (67) vs RHP Jake Irvin: real bat at .042 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.044), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (65) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Dalton Rushing (LAD) (61) vs RHP Colin Rea: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (60) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .034 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .096 against righties this year.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .040 against righties this year.
- Dalton Rushing (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .261 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .098 against righties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.