Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, April 30, 2026
Top home runs spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Young. The lefty is going deep on .066 HR/PA against righties this year — and .079 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 4% of his trips. And Brandon Young has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .083 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Brandon Young too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (99) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.059).
- James Wood (WSH) (82) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: real bat at .040 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (79) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: real bat at .048 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.059).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (74) vs RHP Hunter Dobbins: real bat at .043 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (73) vs RHP Logan Webb: real bat at .049 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.023).
- Christian Walker (HOU) (68) vs RHP Brandon Young: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (68) vs LHP Noah Cameron: real bat at .044 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.026).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .049 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .099 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Yordan Alvarez finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.