Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, May 1, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Cade Povich. The righty is going deep on .119 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .091 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Cade Povich has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Cade Povich too — .300 across 10 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (89) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (88) vs RHP Eury Pérez: big-time bat at .052 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.037).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (78) vs LHP Joey Cantillo: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.054), hot bat.
- Mike Trout (LAA) (78) vs RHP Christian Scott: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Corey Seager (TEX) (70) vs RHP Jack Flaherty: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.111).
- James Wood (WSH) (70) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: real bat at .040 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (69) vs RHP Germán Márquez: real bat at .044 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040).
Platoon edges to target
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .119 against lefties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .046 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .115 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .081 against lefties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.