Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, May 4, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Janson Junk. The lefty is going deep on .101 HR/PA against righties this year — and .073 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Janson Junk has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 5 career PA against Janson Junk, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (97) vs RHP José Soriano: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.077), due to bounce back.
- Mike Trout (LAA) (95) vs RHP Davis Martin: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (95) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (92) vs RHP Huascar Brazobán: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (86) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (84) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: real bat at .042 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.035).
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (80) vs RHP José Soriano: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.077), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .101 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .086 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .039 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .100 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.