Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, May 3, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dustin May. The lefty is going deep on .029 HR/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Dustin May has been leaking power to righties lately — .035 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Dustin May, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (92) vs RHP Jack Kochanowicz: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (90) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (84) vs RHP Chris Paddack: big-time bat at .052 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042), due to bounce back.
- Mike Trout (LAA) (72) vs RHP Clay Holmes: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071), hot bat.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (68) vs RHP Griffin Canning: real bat at .045 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (67) vs RHP Spencer Strider: real bat at .045 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (65) vs RHP Logan Henderson: real bat at .040 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .029 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .042 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .106 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .089 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .092 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.