Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, June 13, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Sean Burke. The lefty is going deep on .037 HR/PA against righties this year — and .050 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Sean Burke has been homer-prone to righties lately — .040 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Sean Burke too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (74) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: big-time bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.024), hot bat.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (70) vs RHP Joey Estes: big-time bat at .050 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- James Wood (WSH) (68) vs RHP Luis Castillo: real bat at .041 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (63) vs LHP Shane Drohan: real bat at .049 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (61) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (59) vs RHP Lake Bachar: real bat at .046 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (58) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .037 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .096 against lefties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .060 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .062 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.