Who has the best home runs matchup today (Sunday, June 14, 2026)?

Nick Kurtz (ATH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. Real bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Sunday, June 14, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Sunday, June 14, 2026: Nick Kurtz (100), James Wood (78), Juan Soto (77), Pete Alonso (77), Byron Buxton (76). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Sunday, June 14, 2026?

No — Nick Kurtz didn't record a home run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .052 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .053 against righties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.

What are park factors?

This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB home runs matchups — Sunday, June 14, 2026

Every slugger on the Sunday, June 14, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run. Results show how each call played out.

Get notified on every DINGER today. Distance, exit velo, and launch angle the moment anyone goes yard — turn on live HR alerts.

How the model did — Sunday, June 14, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on 1+ home run, against 21% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 21%

Top 10

3/1030%

season 22%

Full slate

41/25216%

season 11%

Top call James Wood came through. Nick Kurtz didn't.

Each slugger below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average slugger in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 4–2

MIAaway

PIThomeTop matchup62 Final · 5–2

SDaway

BALhomeTop matchup77 Final · 1–10

SEAaway

WSHhomeTop matchup78 Final · 8–3

NYYaway

TORhomeTop matchup50 Final · 1–8

ATLaway

NYMhomeTop matchup77 Final · 5–3

AZaway

CINhomeTop matchup57 Final · 0–4

HOUaway

KChomeTop matchup71 Final · 4–5

STLaway

MINhomeTop matchup76 Final · 4–6

LADaway

CWShomeTop matchup67 Final · 0–4

PHIaway

MILhomeTop matchup56 Final · 23–9

COLaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–5

CHCaway

SFhomeTop matchup44 Final · 8–3

TBaway

LAAhomeTop matchup51 Final · 6–4

TEXaway

BOShomeTop matchup44

Not starting65 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 317 shownScore

41 with a HRMost recent first — newest homer up top

1
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsTEX· 3-for-4
2HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #46
2
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEX@BOS· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #48
3
Kyle HigashiokaC
TEX@BOS· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #68
4
Junior Caminero3B
TB@LAA· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #20
5
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@LAA· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #215
6
Donovan Walton2B
LAAvsTB· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #219
7
Ben Williamson2B
TB@LAA· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #249
8
Matt Chapman3B
SFvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #72
9
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@ATH· 5-for-6
2HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #21
10
Willi Castro2B
COL@ATH· 4-for-6
2HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #139
11
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsCOL· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #50
12
Max Muncy3B
ATHvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #126
13
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@ATH· 2-for-6
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #144
14
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@ATH· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #198
15
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsPHI· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #52
16
Blake PerkinsCF
MILvsPHI· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #230
17
Alec Burleson1B
STL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #8
18
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsLAD· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #10
19
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@MIN· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #55
20
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@CWS· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #81
21
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@CWS· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #88
22
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #151
23
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #165
24
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #237
25
JJ BledayLF
CINvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #38
26
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@CIN· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #64
27
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsATL· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #90
28
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #93
29
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@CIN· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #136
30
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsATL· 3-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #156
31
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@CIN· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #210
32
Ben RiceDH
NYY@TOR· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #71
33
Davis SchneiderLF
TORvsNYY· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #143
34
José CaballeroSS
NYY@TOR· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #176
35
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BALvsSD· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #102
36
Rodolfo DuránC
SD@BAL· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #146
37
James WoodRF
WSHvsSEA· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #2
38
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsSEA· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #189
39
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@PIT· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #89
40
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsMIA· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #105
41
Joe MackC
MIA@PIT· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #166

Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 14, 2026

Nick Kurtz (ATH) is the top home runs matchup on the Sunday, June 14, 2026 board at 100, with James Wood (WSH) and Juan Soto (NYM) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run — power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is going deep on .052 HR/PA against righties this year — and .114 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .056 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tomoyuki Sugano too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

James Wood (WSH) (78) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: real bat at .042 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045), hot bat.
Juan Soto (NYM) (77) vs RHP Bryce Elder: real bat at .048 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
Pete Alonso (BAL) (77) vs RHP Walker Buehler: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Byron Buxton (MIN) (76) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: big-time bat at .055 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (71) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (67) vs LHP Bryan Hudson: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Alec Burleson (STL) (63) vs RHP Taj Bradley: real bat at .041 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.063), hot bat.

Platoon edges to target

Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .052 against righties this year.
James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .053 against righties this year.

How it played out

3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these home runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the home runs board is

The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
The park's home-run environment and the wind.
How hard and how often he hits it in the air.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.

How to use it

Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Sunday, June 14, 2026)?: Nick Kurtz (ATH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. Real bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Sunday, June 14, 2026)?: The top home runs matchups on Sunday, June 14, 2026: Nick Kurtz (100), James Wood (78), Juan Soto (77), Pete Alonso (77), Byron Buxton (76). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.
Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Sunday, June 14, 2026?: No — Nick Kurtz didn't record a home run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .052 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .053 against righties this year.
How is the home runs matchup score calculated?: It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.
What does HR/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.
What are park factors?: This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.