Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 14, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is going deep on .052 HR/PA against righties this year — and .114 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .056 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tomoyuki Sugano too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- James Wood (WSH) (78) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: real bat at .042 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045), hot bat.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (77) vs RHP Bryce Elder: real bat at .048 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (77) vs RHP Walker Buehler: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (76) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: big-time bat at .055 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (71) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (67) vs LHP Bryan Hudson: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (63) vs RHP Taj Bradley: real bat at .041 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.063), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .052 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .053 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.