Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tyler Mahle. The lefty is going deep on .054 HR/PA against righties this year — and .083 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Tyler Mahle has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Tyler Mahle, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Joe Ryan: elite bat at .067 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (79) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: elite bat at .075 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (69) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: big-time bat at .055 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (61) vs RHP Nolan McLean: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (59) vs LHP Shane Drohan: big-time bat at .052 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (59) vs RHP Bryan Woo: big-time bat at .056 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.031), hot bat.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (55) vs RHP José Soriano: big-time bat at .056 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .068 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .058 against righties this year.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .062 against lefties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.