Who has the best home runs matchup today (Wednesday, June 24, 2026)?

Nick Kurtz (ATH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tyler Mahle. Big-time bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Wednesday, June 24, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Nick Kurtz (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Byron Buxton (79), Yordan Alvarez (69), Pete Crow-Armstrong (61). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Wednesday, June 24, 2026?

No — Nick Kurtz didn't record a home run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .068 against righties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .058 against righties this year. Sal Stewart (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .062 against lefties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.

What are park factors?

This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB home runs matchups — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Every slugger on the Wednesday, June 24, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run. Results show how each call played out.

Get notified on every DINGER today. Distance, exit velo, and launch angle the moment anyone goes yard — turn on live HR alerts.

How the model did — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 0/5 (0%) on 1+ home run, against 22% on the season.

Top 5

0/50%

season 22%

Top 10

0/100%

season 22%

Full slate

33/28811%

season 11%

Top call Ketel Marte came through. Nick Kurtz didn't.

Each slugger below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average slugger in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction home run calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, home run PODs are hitting at a 0% rate — a -100% return.

+13%Byron BuxtonFinal LAD @ MINwe project 36% vs the book's 23% · 0 HROver (1+ HR)1uBRBetRivers+335 · to +251✗

+13%Nick KurtzNEWFinal ATH @ SFwe project 36% vs the book's 24% · 0 HROver (1+ HR)1uCZRCaesars+350 · to +251✗

+12%Shohei OhtaniFinal LAD @ MINwe project 45% vs the book's 33% · 0 HROver (1+ HR)1uBRBetRivers+215 · to +174✗

+10%Iván HerreraFinal AZ @ STLwe project 26% vs the book's 17% · 0 HROver (1+ HR)1uBRBetRivers+600 · to +447✗

+8%Sal StewartFinal MIL @ CINwe project 31% vs the book's 22% · 0 HROver (1+ HR)1uBRBetRivers+430 · to +340✗

+6%Pete Crow-ArmstrongFinal CHC @ NYMwe project 28% vs the book's 22% · 0 HROver (1+ HR)1uCZRCaesars+370 · to +337✗

+5%Owen CaissieFinal TEX @ MIAwe project 20% vs the book's 15% · 0 HROver (1+ HR)1uCZRCaesars+600 · to +567✗

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Final · 2–4

TEXaway

MIAhomeTop matchup43 Final · 10–3

CHCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup61 Final · 4–3

CLEaway

CWShomeTop matchup54 Final · 6–8

BOSaway

COLhomeTop matchup37 Final · 6–7

BALaway

LAAhomeTop matchup55 Final · 1–11

SEAaway

PIThomeTop matchup59 Final · 3–5

KCaway

TBhomeTop matchup42 Final · 4–2

NYYaway

DEThomeTop matchup42 Final · 5–4

PHIaway

WSHhomeTop matchup53 Final · 3–1

HOUaway

TORhomeTop matchup69 Final · 10–5

CHCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup32 Final · 6–5

MILaway

CINhomeTop matchup59 Final · 4–3

LADaway

MINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 9–4

AZaway

STLhomeTop matchup51 Final · 2–5

ATLaway

SDhomeTop matchup44 Final · 1–2

ATHaway

SFhomeTop matchup100

Not starting79 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 367 shownScore

35 with a HRMost recent first — newest homer up top

1
Max Muncy3B
ATH@SF· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #113
2
Victor BericotoLF
SFvsATH· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #135
3
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsATH· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #165
4
Joey BartC
ATL@SD· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #114
5
Ty France1B
SDvsATL· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #214
6
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR
7
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@STL· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #11
8
LuJames Groover1B
AZ@STL· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #189
9
José FermínLF
STLvsAZ· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #255
10
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@MIN· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #116
11
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@CIN· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #54
12
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsCHC· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #55
13
Mark Vientos1B
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #67
14
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsMIL· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #79
15
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #108
16
William ContrerasC
MIL@CIN· 3-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #162
17
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsCHC· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #276
18
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #203
19
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR
20
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #51
21
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #238
22
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@DET· 2-for-4
2HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #21
23
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@DET· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #251
24
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #118
25
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@LAA· 2-for-5
2HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #63
26
Jorge SolerDH
LAAvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #75
27
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@COL· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #168
28
Connor WongC
BOS@COL· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #229
29
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@NYM· 2-for-4
2HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #191
30
Jared Young1B
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #42
31
Michael Busch1B
CHC@NYM· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #46
32
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsCHC· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #71
33
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@MIA· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #40
34
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEX@MIA· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #65
35
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsTEX· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #140

Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Nick Kurtz (ATH) is the top home runs matchup on the Wednesday, June 24, 2026 board at 100, with Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Byron Buxton (MIN) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run — power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tyler Mahle. The lefty is going deep on .054 HR/PA against righties this year — and .083 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Tyler Mahle has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Tyler Mahle, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Joe Ryan: elite bat at .067 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045).
Byron Buxton (MIN) (79) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: elite bat at .075 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (69) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: big-time bat at .055 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (61) vs RHP Nolan McLean: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Sal Stewart (CIN) (59) vs LHP Shane Drohan: big-time bat at .052 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Brandon Lowe (PIT) (59) vs RHP Bryan Woo: big-time bat at .056 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.031), hot bat.
Pete Alonso (BAL) (55) vs RHP José Soriano: big-time bat at .056 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).

Platoon edges to target

Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .068 against righties this year.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .058 against righties this year.
Sal Stewart (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .062 against lefties this year.

How it played out

0 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these home runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the home runs board is

The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
The park's home-run environment and the wind.
How hard and how often he hits it in the air.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.

How to use it

Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Wednesday, June 24, 2026)?: Nick Kurtz (ATH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tyler Mahle. Big-time bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Wednesday, June 24, 2026)?: The top home runs matchups on Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Nick Kurtz (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Byron Buxton (79), Yordan Alvarez (69), Pete Crow-Armstrong (61). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.
Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Wednesday, June 24, 2026?: No — Nick Kurtz didn't record a home run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .068 against righties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .058 against righties this year. Sal Stewart (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .062 against lefties this year.
How is the home runs matchup score calculated?: It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.
What does HR/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.
What are park factors?: This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.