Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Top rbis spot: Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The righty is driving in runs at .171 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .218 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 16% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been getting lit up by righties lately — .364 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Johnson. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: an elite bat at .165 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Owen Caissie (MIA) (86) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: an elite bat at .173 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.214).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (82) vs RHP Luinder Avila: an excellent bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.368), hot bat.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) (82) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.214).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (82) vs LHP Carlos Rodón: an elite bat at .171 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.083).
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (80) vs RHP Casey Mize: an elite bat at .176 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) (80) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.154).
Platoon edges to target
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .197 against lefties this year.
- Owen Caissie (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .197 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .197 against righties this year.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .127 against righties this year.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .191 against lefties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Pete Alonso finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays