Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, May 22, 2026
Top runs spot: Zach Neto
Zach Neto (LAA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jacob deGrom. The righty is scoring at — R/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Jacob deGrom has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Jacob deGrom too — .455 across 11 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Andrew McCutchen (TEX) (100) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Willy Adames (SF) (100) vs RHP Davis Martin: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (100) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Michael Soroka: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (91) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Colby Thomas (ATH) (91) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Zach Neto finished with 2 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.