Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, June 26, 2026
Top runs spot: Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Trevor McDonald. The lefty is scoring at .182 R/PA against righties this year — and .320 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 17% of his trips. And Trevor McDonald has been getting lit up by righties lately — .250 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Trevor McDonald. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (97) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: an excellent bat at .164 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (93) vs RHP Colin Rea: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.162), due to bounce back.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (91) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a strong bat at .149 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.241), due to bounce back.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (91) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.192).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (85) vs LHP Zach Thornton: a strong bat at .147 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (84) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a solid bat at .128 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (84) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.156), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .182 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .210 against righties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year.
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .165 against lefties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Ozzie Albies finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.