Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, June 26, 2026
Top runs spot: Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Trevor McDonald. The lefty is scoring at .182 R/PA against righties this year — and .320 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 17% of his trips. And Trevor McDonald has been getting lit up by righties lately — .250 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Trevor McDonald. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (97) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: an excellent bat at .164 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (93) vs RHP Colin Rea: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.162), due to bounce back.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (91) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a strong bat at .149 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.241), due to bounce back.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (91) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.192).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (85) vs LHP Zach Thornton: a strong bat at .147 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (84) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a solid bat at .128 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (84) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.156), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .182 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .210 against righties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year.
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .165 against lefties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Ozzie Albies finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays