Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, June 29, 2026
Top runs spot: Zach Neto
Zach Neto (LAA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP George Kirby. The righty is scoring at .159 R/PA against righties this year — and .192 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And George Kirby has been mostly holding up against righties lately — .100 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 11 career PA against George Kirby, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) (100) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: an excellent bat at .158 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Griffin Canning: an excellent bat at .150 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.294), due to bounce back.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs LHP Gage Jump: a strong bat at .130 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (89) vs LHP Eric Lauer: a strong bat at .141 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (87) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a strong bat at .140 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.111), hitter's park.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (85) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: an elite bat at .188 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Henry Bolte (ATH) (83) vs LHP Eric Lauer: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .244 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .208 against righties this year.
- Henry Bolte (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .167 against lefties this year.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Esteury Ruiz (MIA) at 100.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Zach Neto finished with 2 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays