Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, June 29, 2026
Top runs spot: Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Braxton Ashcraft. The lefty is scoring at .208 R/PA against righties this year — and .345 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 19% of his trips. And Braxton Ashcraft has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .000 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Braxton Ashcraft too — 1.000 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (100) vs RHP Shane Baz: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (98) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .139 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (93) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.069), due to bounce back.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (92) vs RHP Peter Lambert: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080), due to bounce back.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (92) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .149 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080), hot bat.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (91) vs RHP George Kirby: an excellent bat at .151 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100), due to bounce back.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (89) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .208 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .173 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .168 against righties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .175 against lefties this year.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 98.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.