Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Top runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael King. The lefty is scoring at .171 R/PA against righties this year — and .222 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 17% of his trips. And Michael King has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .067 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael King too — .389 across 18 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (100) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: an excellent bat at .165 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.310).
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) (100) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.086), due to bounce back.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (92) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (92) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.086), due to bounce back.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (91) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.192).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (89) vs RHP Aaron Civale: an excellent bat at .151 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063).
- Henry Bolte (ATH) (89) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.212).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .198 against righties this year.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .153 against lefties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays