Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Top runs spot: Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana (CLE) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Emerson Hancock. The lefty is scoring at .133 R/PA against righties this year — and .345 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Emerson Hancock has been getting lit up by righties lately — .310 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Emerson Hancock. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (92) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (91) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.192).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (89) vs RHP Aaron Civale: an excellent bat at .151 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063).
- Henry Bolte (ATH) (89) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.212).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (88) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a strong bat at .143 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.111).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (88) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.174), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (85) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .169 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.067).
Platoon edges to target
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .153 against lefties this year.
- Henry Bolte (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .167 against lefties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Travis Bazzana finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.