Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, June 27, 2026
Top runs spot: Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Christian Scott. The lefty is scoring at .206 R/PA against righties this year — and .310 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 18% of his trips. And Christian Scott has been getting lit up by righties lately — .286 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Christian Scott. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an elite bat at .171 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.176).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.111).
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (92) vs RHP Christian Scott: an elite bat at .176 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (85) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (84) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286).
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (78) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .148 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.069).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (78) vs RHP Michael Wacha: an excellent bat at .158 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.115).
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .206 against righties this year.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .172 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Bryce Harper finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays