Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, June 27, 2026
Top runs spot: Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Christian Scott. The lefty is scoring at .206 R/PA against righties this year — and .310 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 18% of his trips. And Christian Scott has been getting lit up by righties lately — .286 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Christian Scott. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an elite bat at .171 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.176).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.111).
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (92) vs RHP Christian Scott: an elite bat at .176 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (85) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (84) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286).
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (78) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .148 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.069).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (78) vs RHP Michael Wacha: an excellent bat at .158 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.115).
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .206 against righties this year.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .172 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Bryce Harper finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.