Who has the best runs matchup today (Friday, June 5, 2026)?

Jake McCarthy (COL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Sproat. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Friday, June 5, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Friday, June 5, 2026: Jake McCarthy (100), Christian Yelich (100), Tyler Freeman (91), Jackson Chourio (91), Chad Stevens (83). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Friday, June 5, 2026?

Yes — Jake McCarthy got 1 run.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.

What are park factors?

A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Friday, June 5, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, June 5, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, June 5, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ run, against 51% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 51%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 53%

Full slate

96/27036%

season 36%

Top call Jake McCarthy came through. Tyler Freeman didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 18–3

SFaway

CHChomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–7

SEAaway

DEThomeTop matchup67 Final · 6–8

CWSaway

PHIhomeTop matchup78 Final · 5–3

BOSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup78 Final · 13–3

BALaway

TORhomeTop matchup70 Final · 6–0

TBaway

MIAhomeTop matchup67 Final · 3–6

PITaway

ATLhomeTop matchup67 Final · 1–5

ATHaway

HOUhomeTop matchup67 Final · 3–10

CINaway

STLhomeTop matchup78 Final · 2–3

CLEaway

TEXhomeTop matchup67 Final · 3–5

KCaway

MINhomeTop matchup78 Final · 9–7

MILaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 14–1

WSHaway

AZhomeTop matchup67 Final · 5–0

NYMaway

SDhomeTop matchup70 Final · 0–1

LAAaway

LADhomeTop matchup81

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

96 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Adley RutschmanC
BAL@TOR· 4-for-4
4RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #62
T1
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsCIN· 2-for-4
4RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #79
3
Casey SchmittLF
SF@CHC· 4-for-6
3RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #8
T3
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@COL· 3-for-5
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #49
T3
Junior Caminero3B
TB@MIA· 3-for-3
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #68
6
Brice Turang2B
MIL@COL· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #6
T6
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsCWS· 4-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #9
T6
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsCWS· 0-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #27
T6
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsCIN· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #32
T6
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@AZ· 2-for-6
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #76
T6
Luis Arraez2B
SF@CHC· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #77
T6
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsSF· 1-for-1
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #83
T6
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@AZ· 1-for-2
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #106
T6
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@AZ· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #134
T6
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BAL@TOR· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #137
T6
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsPIT· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #149
T6
Daylen LileLF
WSH@AZ· 3-for-6
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #156
T6
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@CHC· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #170
T6
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@TOR· 1-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #171
T6
Adolis GarcíaRF
PHIvsCWS· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #206
T6
Jonah CoxCF
SF@CHC· 3-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #233
T6
Luis TorrensC
NYM@SD· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #258
23
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsMIL· 2-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #1
T23
Christian YelichDH
MIL@COL· 0-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #2
T23
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@PHI· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #10
T23
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #11
T23
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@NYY· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #12
T23
Blake DunnCF
CIN@STL· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #13
T23
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #15
T23
Gary SánchezC
MIL@COL
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #16
T23
George SpringerDH
TORvsBAL· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #19
T23
Taylor WardDH
BAL@TOR· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #20
T23
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsCIN· 2-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #21
T23
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsBOS· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #29
T23
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsKC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #33
T23
Gleyber Torres2B
DETvsSEA· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #34
T23
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@ATL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #39
T23
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #40
T23
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #42
T23
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@TEX· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #43
T23
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsMIL· 0-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #48
T23
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsLAA· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #50
T23
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@MIN· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #54
T23
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@NYY· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #61
T23
Spencer Steer1B
CIN@STL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #63
T23
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsKC· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #64
T23
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #73
T23
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@NYY· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #88
T23
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@STL· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #91
T23
Josh BellDH
MINvsKC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #92
T23
Willi Castro2B
COLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #93
T23
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsSEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #95
T23
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsPIT· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #99
T23
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #101
T23
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@TOR· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #111
T23
Jared Young1B
NYM@SD· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #114
T23
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsSF· 2-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #115
T23
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsBOS· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #118
T23
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@MIN· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #120
T23
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #121
T23
Sal FrelickRF
MIL@COL· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #122
T23
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@DET· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #124
T23
Yandy DíazDH
TB@MIA· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #126
T23
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsPIT· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #127
T23
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #129
T23
Brent RookerDH
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #130
T23
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@CHC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #135
T23
Bryan TorresLF
STLvsCIN· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #138
T23
Orlando ArciaSS
MINvsKC· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #140
T23
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@SD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #142
T23
Sterlin ThompsonRF
COLvsMIL· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #143
T23
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsSEA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #145
T23
Richie Palacios2B
TB@MIA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #148
T23
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsCWS· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #158
T23
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsCIN· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #163
T23
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsCWS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #176
T23
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@PHI· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #177
T23
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsSEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #184
T23
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsBAL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #200
T23
Brett Baty3B
NYM@SD· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #203
T23
Colt Keith3B
DETvsSEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #213
T23
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@MIA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #216
T23
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsPIT· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #217
T23
Spencer Horwitz1B
PIT@ATL· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #218
T23
Connor WongC
BOS@NYY· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #237
T23
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TORvsBAL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #238
T23
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@TOR· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #239
T23
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsSEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #241
T23
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@ATL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #246
T23
Kyle HigashiokaC
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #249
T23
Aramis GarciaC
AZvsWSH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #251
T23
Drew MillasC
WSH@AZ· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #252
T23
Victor Scott IICF
STLvsCIN· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #254
T23
Alex JacksonC
MINvsKC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #256
T23
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@DET· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #260
T23
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@AZ· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #270

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, June 5, 2026

Jake McCarthy (COL) is the top runs matchup on the Friday, June 5, 2026 board at 100, with Christian Yelich (MIL) and Tyler Freeman (COL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Jake McCarthy

Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Sproat. The lefty is scoring at — R/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Brandon Sproat has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Brandon Sproat too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Christian Yelich (MIL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Tyler Freeman (COL) (91) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (91) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
Chad Stevens (COL) (83) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, due to bounce back.
Brice Turang (MIL) (83) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (81) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Casey Schmitt (SF) (78) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Best parks to score in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.

How it played out

6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Jake McCarthy finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Friday, June 5, 2026)?: Jake McCarthy (COL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Sproat. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Friday, June 5, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Friday, June 5, 2026: Jake McCarthy (100), Christian Yelich (100), Tyler Freeman (91), Jackson Chourio (91), Chad Stevens (83). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Friday, June 5, 2026?: Yes — Jake McCarthy got 1 run.
Which parks favor runs today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.
What are park factors?: A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.