Who has the best runs matchup today (Thursday, June 25, 2026)?

Bryce Harper (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Cade Cavalli. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Thursday, June 25, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Thursday, June 25, 2026: Bryce Harper (100), Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Matt Chapman (91), Nick Kurtz (81), Kyle Schwarber (81). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Thursday, June 25, 2026?

Yes — Bryce Harper got 2 runs.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .201 against righties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year. Matt Chapman (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .131 against lefties this year. Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.

What are park factors?

A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Thursday, June 25, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, June 25, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, June 25, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ run, against 49% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 49%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 52%

Full slate

58/14440%

season 37%

Top call Bryce Harper came through. Pete Crow-Armstrong didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–13

KCaway

TBhomeTop matchup71 Final · 1–5

SEAaway

PIThomeTop matchup69 Final · 9–6

ATHaway

SFhomeTop matchup91 Final · 2–1

HOUaway

DEThomeTop matchup81 Final · 10–5

PHIaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–5

TEXaway

TORhomeTop matchup71 Final · 4–3

CHCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–6

NYYaway

BOShomeTop matchup56

Not starting39 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 183 shownScore

61 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsKC· 3-for-5
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #42
2
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@WSH· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.7 R, #1
T2
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@WSH· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #9
T2
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsPHI· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #27
T2
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsATH· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #29
T2
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@SF· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #39
T2
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsKC· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #60
T2
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@TOR· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #78
T2
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@SF· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #81
T2
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsNYY· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #88
T2
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsTEX· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #95
T2
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@SF· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #97
T2
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #114
T2
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsKC· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #126
T2
Henry DavisC
PITvsSEA· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #134
16
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@WSH· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.7 R, #5
T16
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsHOU· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #10
T16
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@WSH· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #11
T16
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEX@TOR· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #13
T16
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsATH· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #14
T16
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@SF· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #19
T16
Carter JensenC
KC@TB· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #21
T16
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsATH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #22
T16
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@DET· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #25
T16
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsKC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #26
T16
Michael ConfortoDH
CHC@NYM· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #30
T16
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsPHI· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #33
T16
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@BOS· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #36
T16
Jake Burger1B
TEX@TOR· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #43
T16
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsSEA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #44
T16
Victor BericotoLF
SFvsATH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #46
T16
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsSEA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #48
T16
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsATH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #49
T16
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSHvsPHI· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #50
T16
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@NYM· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #53
T16
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsTEX· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #55
T16
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@WSH· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #56
T16
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@NYM· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #59
T16
José CaballeroSS
NYY@BOS· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #61
T16
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@TOR· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #66
T16
Jonah HeimC
ATH@SF· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #75
T16
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsKC· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #77
T16
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@BOS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #93
T16
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsNYY· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #96
T16
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsNYY· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #98
T16
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsTEX· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #101
T16
Starling MarteRF
KC@TB· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #103
T16
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsKC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #105
T16
Henry BolteCF
ATH@SF· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #110
T16
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsTEX· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #117
T16
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsPHI· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #122
T16
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsNYY· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #129
T16
Taylor TrammellCF
HOU@DET· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #130
T16
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #133
T16
Mitch GarverC
SEA@PIT· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #136
T16
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsSEA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #138
T16
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@WSH· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #140
T16
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@TOR· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #143
T16
Jared Young1B
NYMvsCHC· 1-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T16
Nick FortesC
TBvsKC· 1-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R
T16
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOSvsNYY
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, June 25, 2026

Bryce Harper (PHI) is the top runs matchup on the Thursday, June 25, 2026 board at 100, with Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) and Matt Chapman (SF) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Cade Cavalli. The lefty is scoring at .201 R/PA against righties this year — and .344 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 19% of his trips. And Cade Cavalli has been letting runs score against righties lately — .120 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Cade Cavalli, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .162 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.295), hot bat.
Matt Chapman (SF) (91) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.367).
Nick Kurtz (ATH) (81) vs RHP Landen Roupp: an excellent bat at .158 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.174), due to bounce back.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (81) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an excellent bat at .151 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.120).
Ian Happ (CHC) (81) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.295), hot bat.
Kevin McGonigle (DET) (81) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.227).
Bo Bichette (NYM) (74) vs LHP Matthew Boyd: a strong bat at .142 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Platoon edges to target

Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .201 against righties this year.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
Matt Chapman (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .131 against lefties this year.
Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.

How it played out

4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Bryce Harper finished with 2 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Thursday, June 25, 2026)?: Bryce Harper (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Cade Cavalli. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Thursday, June 25, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Thursday, June 25, 2026: Bryce Harper (100), Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Matt Chapman (91), Nick Kurtz (81), Kyle Schwarber (81). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Thursday, June 25, 2026?: Yes — Bryce Harper got 2 runs.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .201 against righties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year. Matt Chapman (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .131 against lefties this year. Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.
What are park factors?: A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.