Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, June 25, 2026
Top runs spot: Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Cade Cavalli. The lefty is scoring at .201 R/PA against righties this year — and .344 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 19% of his trips. And Cade Cavalli has been letting runs score against righties lately — .120 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Cade Cavalli, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (100) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.244), due to bounce back.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .162 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.295), hot bat.
- Matt Chapman (SF) (91) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.367).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (89) vs RHP Zac Gallen: an excellent bat at .150 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.244), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (81) vs RHP Landen Roupp: an excellent bat at .158 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.174), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (81) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an excellent bat at .151 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.120).
- Ian Happ (CHC) (81) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.295), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .201 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- Matt Chapman (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .131 against lefties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .140 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Bryce Harper finished with 2 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.