Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. The lefty is scoring at .207 R/PA against righties this year — and .250 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 18% of his trips. And Aaron Nola has been getting lit up by righties lately — .167 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 12 career PA against Aaron Nola. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (97) vs RHP Joe Ryan: an excellent bat at .166 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (92) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.360).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (88) vs RHP Nolan McLean: an excellent bat at .162 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.158), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (87) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: an excellent bat at .168 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (86) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: an excellent bat at .158 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (82) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: an excellent bat at .164 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (82) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.146), hitter's park.
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .207 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .167 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 82.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play James Wood finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.