Who has the best runs matchup today (Tuesday, June 30, 2026)?

Liam Hicks (MIA) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Tuesday, June 30, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Tuesday, June 30, 2026: Liam Hicks (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Kyle Stowers (92), Bryce Harper (89), Kyle Schwarber (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year. Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .117 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .207 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.

What are park factors?

A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, June 30, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ run, against 48% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 48%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 51%

Full slate

123/27046%

season 38%

Top call Liam Hicks came through. Shohei Ohtani didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 9–3

CWSaway

BALhomeTop matchup71 Final · 4–2

TEXaway

CLEhomeTop matchup69 Final · 0–8

PITaway

PHIhomeTop matchup89 Final · 9–3

DETaway

NYYhomeTop matchup70 Final · 3–0

NYMaway

TORhomeTop matchup76 Final · 8–1

WSHaway

BOShomeTop matchup70 Final · 5–3

STLaway

ATLhomeTop matchup81 Final · 2–7

CINaway

MILhomeTop matchup66 Final · 10–4

TBaway

KChomeTop matchup68 Final · 7–9

SDaway

CHChomeTop matchup53 Final · 4–6

MINaway

HOUhomeTop matchup84 Final · 14–3

MIAaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–8

LAAaway

SEAhomeTop matchup80 Final · 2–8

SFaway

AZhomeTop matchup87 Final · 9–3

LADaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100

Not starting69 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 339 shownScore

123 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsCIN· 3-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #97
T1
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@COL· 3-for-5
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #137
3
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@COL· 3-for-6
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #3
T3
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@ATH· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #15
T3
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@COL· 4-for-6
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #18
T3
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@HOU· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #29
T3
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@COL· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #31
T3
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsCWS· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #36
T3
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsLAA· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #50
T3
Cole Young2B
SEAvsLAA· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #61
T3
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #64
T3
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@CHC· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #66
T3
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsLAA· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #74
T3
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsTB· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #83
T3
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@ATH· 4-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #96
T3
Ryan ViladeRF
TB@KC· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #108
T3
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsSF· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #118
T3
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSD· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #121
T3
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@KC· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #125
T3
Riley GreeneLF
DET@NYY· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #152
T3
Jorge MateoSS
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-2
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #157
T3
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@BAL· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #161
T3
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsSD· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #184
T3
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@COL· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #186
T3
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@NYY· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #211
T3
Daylen LileLF
WSH@BOS· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #221
T3
Masyn WinnSS
STL@ATL· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #228
T3
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@BOS· 0-for-2
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #245
T3
Keibert RuizC
WSH@BOS· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #267
30
Liam HicksC
MIA@COL· 2-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #1
T30
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #5
T30
Luis Arraez2B
SF@AZ· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #6
T30
Andy PagesCF
LAD@ATH· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #7
T30
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@HOU· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #8
T30
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@COL· 4-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #11
T30
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@ATH· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #21
T30
Anthony Seigler2B
BOSvsWSH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #22
T30
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsLAA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #23
T30
Rafael Devers1B
SF@AZ· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #27
T30
Yandy DíazDH
TB@KC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #28
T30
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@MIL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #33
T30
Teoscar HernándezLF
LAD@ATH· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #38
T30
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsMIN· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #39
T30
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsSF· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #40
T30
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsSF· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #41
T30
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsLAA· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #46
T30
Junior Caminero3B
TB@KC· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #47
T30
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@KC· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #53
T30
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@ATH· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #54
T30
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #55
T30
Carter JensenC
KCvsTB· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #56
T30
Josh Jung3B
TEX@CLE· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #57
T30
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsPIT· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #58
T30
Kyle TeelC
CWS@BAL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #60
T30
Amed Rosario3B
NYYvsDET· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #68
T30
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsMIN· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #69
T30
Joe MackC
MIA@COL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #72
T30
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsCWS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #76
T30
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@MIL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #77
T30
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #78
T30
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsSTL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #79
T30
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsSD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #80
T30
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsSD· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #82
T30
Dillon DinglerC
DET@NYY· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #84
T30
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsTEX· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #86
T30
Manny Machado3B
SD@CHC· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #89
T30
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@CLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #91
T30
Miguel Rojas2B
LAD@ATH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #92
T30
William ContrerasC
MILvsCIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #94
T30
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@BAL· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #95
T30
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@CLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #99
T30
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@BAL· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #103
T30
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #107
T30
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@TOR· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #111
T30
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@BAL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #112
T30
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@SEA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #113
T30
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #119
T30
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@BAL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #133
T30
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@BOS· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #146
T30
Kerry CarpenterRF
DET@NYY· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #149
T30
Luis TorrensC
NYM@TOR· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #158
T30
Ben Williamson2B
TB@KC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #160
T30
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsCIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #162
T30
Ty France1B
SD@CHC· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #165
T30
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsMIA· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #167
T30
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #168
T30
Max SchuemannLF
NYYvsDET· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #169
T30
Colt Keith3B
DET@NYY· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #174
T30
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsPIT· 3-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #175
T30
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsDET· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #177
T30
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #178
T30
Junior PerezCF
CWS@BAL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #183
T30
Max KeplerLF
AZvsSF· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #185
T30
Ian HappLF
CHCvsSD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #190
T30
Taylor WallsSS
TB@KC· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #192
T30
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZvsSF· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #194
T30
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWS@BAL· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #196
T30
Nelson VelázquezLF
STL@ATL· 2-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #198
T30
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsPIT· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #200
T30
Nick FortesC
TB@KC· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #205
T30
Lars NootbaarLF
STL@ATL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #206
T30
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsSF· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #207
T30
Sal FrelickRF
MILvsCIN· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #208
T30
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsPIT· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #218
T30
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@HOU· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #222
T30
Josh LoweLF
LAA@SEA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #223
T30
Raynel Delgado2B
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #224
T30
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@CHC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #225
T30
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #226
T30
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@NYY· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #233
T30
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@TOR· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #234
T30
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsMIN· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #237
T30
Joey Meneses1B
ATHvsLAD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #238
T30
James OutmanCF
DET@NYY· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #239
T30
Colby ThomasRF
ATHvsLAD· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #240
T30
Edouard Julien2B
COLvsMIA· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #244
T30
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@ATL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #246
T30
Jorge BarrosaCF
AZvsSF· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #248
T30
Kevin AlcántaraDH
CHCvsSD· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #254
T30
Logan O'HoppeC
LAA@SEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #258
T30
Freddy FerminC
SD@CHC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #260
T30
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@CLE· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #264
T30
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsTB· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #268

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Liam Hicks (MIA) is the top runs matchup on the Tuesday, June 30, 2026 board at 100, with Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Kyle Stowers (MIA) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Liam Hicks

Liam Hicks (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is scoring at .154 R/PA against righties this year — and .091 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tanner Gordon too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), hot bat.
Kyle Stowers (MIA) (92) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .120 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Bryce Harper (PHI) (89) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (89) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .143 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
Luis Arraez (SF) (87) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a solid bat at .126 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Andy Pages (LAD) (86) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .119 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
Trevor Larnach (MIN) (84) vs RHP Mike Burrows: a strong bat at .137 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.111).

Platoon edges to target

Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .117 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .207 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year.

How it played out

6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Liam Hicks finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Tuesday, June 30, 2026)?: Liam Hicks (MIA) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Tuesday, June 30, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Tuesday, June 30, 2026: Liam Hicks (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Kyle Stowers (92), Bryce Harper (89), Kyle Schwarber (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Tuesday, June 30, 2026?: Yes — Liam Hicks got 1 run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year. Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .117 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .207 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.
What are park factors?: A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.