Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Top runs spot: Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bubba Chandler. The lefty is scoring at .208 R/PA against righties this year — and .345 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 19% of his trips. And Bubba Chandler has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .098 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Bubba Chandler too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (92) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .143 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) (91) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (90) vs RHP Mike Burrows: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182).
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (88) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an elite bat at .175 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.098).
- Brooks Lee (MIN) (87) vs RHP Mike Burrows: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), hot bat.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (85) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: an excellent bat at .165 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.151), due to bounce back.
- Bo Bichette (NYM) (85) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.429).
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .208 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 92.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.