Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Top runs spot: Yandy Díaz
Yandy Díaz (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Seth Lugo. The righty is scoring at .124 R/PA against righties this year — and .263 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Seth Lugo has been getting lit up by righties lately — .313 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 10 career PA against Seth Lugo, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (98) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.070), hot bat.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (94) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.212), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (91) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.313), hot bat.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (89) vs RHP Will Warren: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.290).
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (88) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .109 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (87) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at .140 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.088).
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (86) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .119 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .172 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .177 against lefties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
252 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.