Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, April 7, 2026)?

Garrett Crochet (BOS) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against MIL. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, April 7, 2026: Garrett Crochet (~6.4 K), Jacob Misiorowski (~6.9 K), Kevin Gausman (~6.2 K), Cam Schlittler (~6.3 K), Cristopher Sánchez (~6.1 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, April 7, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Our top 3 starts went 2/3 (67%) on our strikeout over/under, against 54% on the season.

Top 3

2/367%

season 54%

Top 5

3/560%

season 49%

Full slate

13/2945%

season 52%

Play of the Day: Tarik Skubal ✓, Paul Skenes ✓

Top call Garrett Crochet came through. Jacob Misiorowski didn't.

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 67% rate — a +19% return.

Δ2.3Tarik SkubalFinal DET @ MINwe project 5.2 K vs the 7.5 lineUnder 7.52u+115✓

Δ1.5Paul SkenesFinal SD @ PITwe project 5.0 K vs the 6.5 lineUnder 6.51u-105✓

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Final · 1–2

KCaway

CLEhomeTop matchup63 Final · 4–2

BALaway

CWShomeTop matchup30 Final · 3–4

AZaway

NYMhomeTop matchup62 Final · 1–7

SDaway

PIThomeTop matchup57 Final · 9–2

CHCaway

TBhomeTop matchup8 Final · 6–3

CINaway

MIAhomeTop matchup47 Final · 7–6

STLaway

WSHhomeTop matchup16 Final · 2–3

MILaway

BOShomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–5

ATHaway

NYYhomeTop matchup88 Final · 4–1

LADaway

TORhomeTop matchup99 Final · 2–4

DETaway

MINhomeTop matchup51 Final · 2–3

SEAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup59 Final · 1–5

HOUaway

COLhomeTop matchup64 Final · 7–2

ATLaway

LAAhomeTop matchup39 Final · 0–6

PHIaway

SFhomeTop matchup82

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB29.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)24.9%3.0

2. William Contreras (R)23.2%3.0

3. Luis Rengifo (R)20.3%3.0

4. Gary Sánchez (R)24.2%3.0

5. Joey Ortiz (R)22.6%3.0

6. Luis Matos (R)25.1%2.1

7. Sal Frelick (L)19.6%2.0

8. Blake Perkins (R)20.5%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-130

BOLBetOnline+103-133

BRBetRivers-108-124

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+103-131

FDFanDuel-102-130

MBMyBookie-101-136

We project 6.4 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Garrett Crochet's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.7% K / BF

vs LHB30.1%

vs RHB26.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)25.7%3.0

2. Jarren Duran (L)24.7%3.0

3. Willson Contreras (R)24.2%3.0

4. Wilyer Abreu (L)23.7%3.0

5. Trevor Story (R)28.6%2.9

6. Caleb Durbin (R)20.3%2.0

7. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)22.2%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)23.3%2.0

9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers+123-165

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+110-140

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+118-158

We project 6.9 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob Misiorowski's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate33.1% K / BF

vs LHB27.6%

vs RHB30.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.4%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)17.8%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)19.0%3.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)17.2%3.0

5. Teoscar Hernández (R)23.0%2.4

6. Andy Pages (R)18.8%2.0

7. Max Muncy (L)26.4%2.0

8. Hyeseong Kim (L)22.1%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+113-147

BRBetRivers+112-148

DKDraftKings+114-145

FANFanatics+110-145

MBMyBookie+108-149

We project 6.2 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Kevin Gausman's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.3% K / BF

vs LHB27.3%

vs RHB26.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)26.7%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)23.9%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.3%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)27.0%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)17.3%2.2

6. Lawrence Butler (L)24.4%2.0

7. Andy Ibáñez (R)21.5%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)23.6%2.0

9. Carlos Cortes (L)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-147+113

BRBetRivers-130-103

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-151+118

FDFanDuel-118-112

MBMyBookie-149+108

We project 6.3 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cam Schlittler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB28.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)25.4%3.0

2. Matt Chapman (R)21.6%3.0

3. Luis Arraez (L)15.9%3.0

4. Heliot Ramos (R)25.0%3.0

5. Rafael Devers (L)23.1%2.9

6. Casey Schmitt (R)21.2%2.0

7. Jung Hoo Lee (L)19.0%2.0

8. Daniel Susac (R)20.4%2.0

9. Harrison Bader (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers+110-148

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+115-147

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+116-154

MBMyBookie-104-133

We project 6.1 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cristopher Sánchez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Hunter Goodman (R)26.8%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)21.6%3.0

3. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.1%3.0

4. Troy Johnston (L)22.1%3.0

5. TJ Rumfield (L)21.7%3.0

6. Willi Castro (L)23.8%2.4

7. Brenton Doyle (R)26.1%2.0

8. Brett Sullivan (L)22.6%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)26.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers-152+114

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-147+115

FDFanDuel-138+104

We project 5.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Mike Burrows's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.5% K / BF

vs LHB26.1%

vs RHB26.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)17.1%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.5%3.0

3. Lane Thomas (R)24.4%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)19.1%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)26.7%2.9

6. Jonathan India (R)20.8%2.0

7. Jac Caglianone (L)21.2%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (L)21.9%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-110-118

BRBetRivers-103-130

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-126-101

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel-102-130

MBMyBookie-114-121

We project 5.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Gavin Williams's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.3% K / BF

vs LHB26.5%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)19.2%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)23.2%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)16.7%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)21.0%3.0

5. Jose Fernandez (R)24.6%2.6

6. Nolan Arenado (R)23.1%2.0

7. Ildemaro Vargas (L)19.8%2.0

8. Tim Tawa (R)21.1%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BOLBetOnline-154+118

BRBetRivers-137+102

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-157+123

FDFanDuel-136+102

MBMyBookie-156+112

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)24.0%3.0

2. Daulton Varsho (L)23.0%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.7%3.0

4. Jesús Sánchez (L)22.9%3.0

5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)33.3%2.7

6. Ernie Clement (R)15.6%2.0

7. Davis Schneider (R)23.3%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.3%2.0

9. Tyler Heineman (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-143+110

BRBetRivers-148+110

BOVBovada-145+110

FDFanDuel-136+102

MBMyBookie-145+105

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brendan Donovan (L)19.4%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)29.2%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)25.3%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)15.7%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)20.0%2.9

6. Luke Raley (L)27.5%2.0

7. J.P. Crawford (L)24.8%2.0

8. Dominic Canzone (L)21.1%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BOLBetOnline-119-109

BRBetRivers-139+104

DKDraftKings-119-107

FDFanDuel-114-114

MBMyBookie-123-113

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Nathan Eovaldi's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.4%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)21.4%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.3%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)26.2%3.0

5. Joc Pederson (L)20.8%3.0

6. Evan Carter (L)21.9%2.0

7. Kyle Higashioka (R)21.6%2.0

8. Josh Smith (L)19.0%2.0

9. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-110-118

BRBetRivers-125-106

DKDraftKings-125-102

FANFanatics-120-110

FDFanDuel-130-102

MBMyBookie-114-121

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

George Kirby's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.6% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.8%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)18.6%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.0%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)21.0%3.0

5. Nick Yorke (R)20.3%2.1

6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.9%2.0

7. Jake Mangum (L)22.6%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)20.6%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers-105-129

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings-107-119

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel-108-122

MBMyBookie-104-133

We project 5.6 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Nick Pivetta's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.6%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)28.4%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)19.3%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)22.7%3.0

5. Edmundo Sosa (R)21.6%2.7

6. Rafael Marchán (R)20.2%2.0

7. Otto Kemp (R)25.0%2.0

8. Dylan Moore (R)23.3%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline+107-139

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+109-139

FDFanDuel+112-148

MBMyBookie+102-141

We project 5.5 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Robbie Ray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.6% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jahmai Jones (R)22.8%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)18.2%3.0

3. Gleyber Torres (R)19.2%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)21.2%3.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)24.5%2.7

6. Zach McKinstry (L)23.4%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)27.7%2.0

8. Matt Vierling (R)22.6%2.0

9. Javier Báez (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BOLBetOnline-167+128

BRBetRivers-148+110

BOVBovada-150+115

FDFanDuel-152+116

MBMyBookie-168+121

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 5.2 K, but the book line is 7.5 — so the play is Under 7.5.

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls, where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line. To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 67% rate — a +19% return on the season.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB24.2%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)24.9%3.0

2. Austin Martin (R)20.3%3.0

3. Luke Keaschall (R)22.7%3.0

4. Ryan Jeffers (R)19.4%3.0

5. Victor Caratini (R)20.1%3.0

6. Josh Bell (R)25.6%2.1

7. Matt Wallner (L)25.2%2.0

8. Royce Lewis (R)23.2%2.0

9. Brooks Lee (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-130-102

BOLBetOnline-137+106

BRBetRivers-148+112

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-139+109

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-152+114

MBMyBookie-140+101

We project 5.2 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Tarik Skubal's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)23.5%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)26.6%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)24.4%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)21.3%3.0

5. Will Benson (L)25.7%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)24.1%3.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)22.8%2.0

8. Noelvi Marte (R)20.9%2.0

9. Dane Myers (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline-103-125

BRBetRivers-103-130

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-101-126

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-118-114

MBMyBookie-107-128

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Sandy Alcantara's full player page →

★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 5.0 K, but the book line is 6.5 — so the play is Under 6.5.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)23.3%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.7%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)19.0%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)22.1%2.3

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)18.2%2.0

6. Gavin Sheets (L)22.8%2.0

7. Miguel Andujar (R)23.3%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)23.6%2.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-116-111

BRBetRivers-107-124

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-106-120

FDFanDuel-120-110

MBMyBookie-120-115

We project 5.0 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Paul Skenes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)23.4%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.1%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)17.7%3.0

4. Jeimer Candelario (L)24.7%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)24.9%2.6

6. Jo Adell (R)23.4%2.0

7. Bryce Teodosio (R)22.7%2.0

8. Travis d'Arnaud (R)25.0%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-145

BOLBetOnline+106-137

BRBetRivers+104-137

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings-101-126

FDFanDuel+104-138

MBMyBookie+101-140

We project 4.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Reynaldo López's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)18.0%3.0

2. Daniel Schneemann (L)22.7%3.0

3. José Ramírez (R)16.6%3.0

4. Chase DeLauter (L)23.3%3.0

5. Kyle Manzardo (L)22.8%2.7

6. Juan Brito (R)22.0%2.0

7. CJ Kayfus (L)25.0%2.0

8. Bo Naylor (L)20.7%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-118-111

BOLBetOnline-111-116

BRBetRivers-110-121

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-112-114

FDFanDuel-114-114

MBMyBookie-115-120

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Noah Cameron's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)21.3%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)26.7%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)17.6%3.0

4. Ben Rice (L)21.7%3.0

5. Randal Grichuk (R)18.0%2.7

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.1%2.0

7. Ryan McMahon (L)27.9%2.0

8. Austin Wells (L)23.6%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-145

BOLBetOnline-110-118

BRBetRivers-124-108

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-101-126

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-125-106

MBMyBookie-114-121

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Aaron Civale's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)22.0%3.0

2. Lenyn Sosa (R)23.1%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)20.5%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)22.2%3.0

5. Edgar Quero (R)21.8%3.0

6. Dustin Harris (L)23.1%2.5

7. Tristan Peters (L)24.1%2.0

8. Munetaka Murakami (L)25.9%2.0

9. Derek Hill (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BRBetRivers-195+143

BOVBovada-170+130

FDFanDuel-172+128

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Trevor Rogers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.9% K / BF

vs LHB17.8%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)20.3%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)20.9%3.0

3. Ronny Mauricio (L)26.0%3.0

4. Luis Robert Jr. (R)20.9%3.0

5. Brett Baty (L)24.0%2.4

6. Jared Young (L)21.3%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)25.1%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)22.7%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-152+116

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-146+114

FANFanatics-150+115

FDFanDuel-144+108

MBMyBookie-154+111

We project 4.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Zac Gallen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)21.9%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)18.0%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)16.4%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)24.5%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)19.8%3.0

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)21.7%2.2

7. Michael Harris II (L)21.3%2.0

8. Jonah Heim (R)19.1%2.0

9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+128-167

BRBetRivers-103-130

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+118-150

FANFanatics+120-160

FDFanDuel+110-146

MBMyBookie+121-168

We project 4.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Yusei Kikuchi's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)21.6%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.1%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)24.3%3.0

4. Samuel Basallo (L)25.2%2.4

5. Tyler O'Neill (R)23.6%2.0

6. Jeremiah Jackson (R)22.8%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)23.2%2.0

8. Coby Mayo (R)27.0%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-130

BOLBetOnline+102-132

BRBetRivers+118-157

DKDraftKings+100-128

FANFanatics+110-145

MBMyBookie-102-135

We project 4.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane Smith's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)19.3%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.1%3.0

3. Jose Altuve (R)20.5%3.0

4. Isaac Paredes (R)20.3%3.0

5. Christian Walker (R)23.1%2.7

6. Cam Smith (R)24.7%2.0

7. Jake Meyers (R)22.6%2.0

8. Yainer Diaz (R)21.3%2.0

9. Joey Loperfido (L)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-130-102

BOLBetOnline-139+107

BRBetRivers-152+114

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-146+115

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-138+104

MBMyBookie-143+103

We project 4.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Freeland's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Griffin Conine (L)20.4%3.0

2. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.3%3.0

3. Jakob Marsee (L)25.3%3.0

4. Otto Lopez (R)16.6%3.0

5. Graham Pauley (L)20.6%3.0

6. Connor Norby (R)20.6%2.2

7. Xavier Edwards (R)19.2%2.0

8. Liam Hicks (L)18.0%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-145+111

BRBetRivers-150+112

DKDraftKings-152+119

MBMyBookie-147+106

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Abbott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB15.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)26.1%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)19.5%3.0

3. Brady House (R)23.6%3.0

4. Daylen Lile (L)20.5%3.0

5. Jorbit Vivas (L)20.3%3.0

6. CJ Abrams (L)23.8%2.0

7. Jacob Young (R)19.5%2.0

8. Nasim Nuñez (R)22.9%2.0

9. Drew Millas (R)28.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+107-139

BRBetRivers-106-125

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings+108-138

FDFanDuel+100-132

MBMyBookie+102-141

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Matthew Liberatore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB16.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)3.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)22.2%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.6%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)16.5%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.7%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)26.7%2.6

6. Masyn Winn (R)21.9%2.0

7. Thomas Saggese (R)23.2%2.0

8. Yohel Pozo (R)20.3%2.0

9. Nathan Church (L)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BOLBetOnline-116-111

BRBetRivers-120-110

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-118-108

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-118-112

MBMyBookie-120-115

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Cade Cavalli's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.0 BF

Expected batters faced18.0

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)16.7%2.0

2. Michael Busch (L)21.8%2.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)15.2%2.0

4. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.5%2.0

5. Miguel Amaya (R)20.2%2.0

6. Moisés Ballesteros (L)24.8%2.0

7. Dansby Swanson (R)24.3%2.0

8. Michael Conforto (L)25.9%2.0

9. Matt Shaw (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mason Englert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB16.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)18.2%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)20.9%3.0

3. Ryan Vilade (R)23.7%3.0

4. Junior Caminero (R)21.4%3.0

5. Chandler Simpson (L)14.2%3.0

6. Cedric Mullins (L)24.1%2.0

7. Nick Fortes (R)18.2%2.0

8. Richie Palacios (L)18.4%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BOLBetOnline+106-137

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+109-139

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel-108-122

MBMyBookie+101-140

We project 3.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Javier Assad's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Garrett Crochet (BOS) is the top strikeout start on the Tuesday, April 7, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K, with Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Garrett Crochet

Garrett Crochet (BOS) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against MIL. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and MIL has been around league average, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) (100) — about 6.9 K vs BOS: a 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) (99) — about 6.2 K vs LAD: a 33% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) (88) — about 6.3 K vs ATH: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) (82) — about 6.1 K vs SF: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Mike Burrows (HOU) (64) — about 5.7 K vs COL: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Shane Smith is the arm to exploit it (21).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Mike Burrows is the arm to exploit it (64).
BOS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Jacob Misiorowski is the arm to exploit it (100).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Sandy Alcantara is the arm to exploit it (47).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.4 strikeouts. Top play Garrett Crochet punched out 7. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

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Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, April 7, 2026)?: Garrett Crochet (BOS) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against MIL. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, April 7, 2026: Garrett Crochet (~6.4 K), Jacob Misiorowski (~6.9 K), Kevin Gausman (~6.2 K), Cam Schlittler (~6.3 K), Cristopher Sánchez (~6.1 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Tuesday, April 7, 2026?: Garrett Crochet punched out 7.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 67% at a +19% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays