Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, May 3, 2026)?

Chase Burns (CIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against PIT. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, May 3, 2026: Chase Burns (~6.0 K), Parker Messick (~5.7 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.0 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.8 K), Spencer Strider (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, May 3, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, May 3, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 3–4

TORaway

MINhomeTop matchup68 Final · 3–1

HOUaway

BOShomeTop matchup59 Final · 0–1

CINaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–11

BALaway

NYYhomeTop matchup70 Final · 2–3

MILaway

WSHhomeTop matchup64 Final · 1–2

SFaway

TBhomeTop matchup47 Final · 7–2

PHIaway

MIAhomeTop matchup87 Final · 4–1

LADaway

STLhomeTop matchup47 Final · 4–8

AZaway

CHChomeTop matchup63 Final · 11–6

ATLaway

COLhomeTop matchup78 Final · 1–7

CLEaway

ATHhomeTop matchup89 Final · 5–1

NYMaway

LAAhomeTop matchup70 Final · 4–1

KCaway

SEAhomeTop matchup64 Final · 3–4

CWSaway

SDhomeTop matchup41 Final · 1–7

TEXaway

DEThomeTop matchup64

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.2% K/BF

vs LHB26.8%

vs RHB26.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)29.6%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.0%3.0

3. Henry Davis (R)21.0%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)18.7%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)16.6%2.9

6. Billy Cook (R)24.1%2.0

7. Spencer Horwitz (L)15.7%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)23.8%2.0

9. Jake Mangum (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.0% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB27.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)16.7%3.0

2. Brent Rooker (R)23.9%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)28.0%3.0

4. Lawrence Butler (L)25.3%3.0

5. Zack Gelof (R)24.1%2.8

6. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.5%2.0

7. Austin Wynns (R)21.3%2.0

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)17.5%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)16.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.3% K/BF

vs LHB25.4%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Otto Lopez (R)19.1%3.0

2. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.4%3.0

3. Owen Caissie (L)29.7%3.0

4. Connor Norby (R)21.9%3.0

5. Graham Pauley (L)20.5%3.0

6. Christopher Morel (R)26.2%2.5

7. Leo Jiménez (R)23.9%2.0

8. Esteury Ruiz (R)22.5%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)18.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.3% K/BF

vs LHB26.9%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)20.8%3.0

2. Dane Myers (R)21.7%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.8%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.2%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)21.6%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)23.7%2.0

7. Will Benson (L)25.8%2.0

8. Jose Trevino (R)21.1%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)24.6%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)21.3%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)29.3%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.0%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)21.3%3.0

6. Willi Castro (L)24.7%2.0

7. Brett Sullivan (L)20.8%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.6%2.0

9. Jake McCarthy (L)17.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)17.6%3.0

2. Adley Rutschman (R)18.3%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)24.3%3.0

4. Tyler O'Neill (R)26.9%3.0

5. Coby Mayo (R)22.8%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (R)22.8%3.0

7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)22.7%2.1

8. Samuel Basallo (L)22.8%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)29.3%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.0%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)15.5%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)27.5%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)24.5%3.0

6. Josh Lowe (L)25.4%2.3

7. Vaughn Grissom (R)18.1%2.0

8. Oswald Peraza (R)24.4%2.0

9. Travis d'Arnaud (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Myles Straw (R)16.7%3.0

2. Kazuma Okamoto (R)26.8%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.3%3.0

4. Davis Schneider (R)25.2%3.0

5. Lenyn Sosa (R)20.0%2.6

6. Daulton Varsho (L)21.0%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)13.3%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.9%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.2%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dominic Canzone (L)23.6%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.8%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)21.7%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)23.9%3.0

5. J.P. Crawford (L)18.6%2.9

6. Cole Young (L)18.3%2.0

7. Connor Joe (R)23.8%2.0

8. Jhonny Pereda (R)24.4%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.4%3.0

2. Matt Vierling (R)21.1%3.0

3. Zack Short (R)23.3%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)25.1%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.2%3.0

6. Kerry Carpenter (L)26.2%2.0

7. Wenceel Pérez (L)17.8%2.0

8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)21.5%2.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.9%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)19.7%3.0

3. Jacob Young (R)19.0%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)18.2%2.4

5. Daylen Lile (L)18.4%2.0

6. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.6%2.0

7. Brady House (R)28.7%2.0

8. Jorbit Vivas (L)18.4%2.0

9. Keibert Ruiz (L)18.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.4% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)20.7%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)16.6%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)20.4%3.0

4. Ildemaro Vargas (R)16.9%2.8

5. Nolan Arenado (R)18.4%2.0

6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.3%2.0

7. Gabriel Moreno (R)19.7%2.0

8. Jose Fernandez (R)22.9%2.0

9. Adrian Del Castillo (L)27.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)19.1%3.0

2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)21.1%3.0

3. Max Schuemann (R)22.0%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)19.0%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.3%3.0

6. Jasson Domínguez (L)22.0%2.0

7. Austin Wells (L)19.5%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)26.6%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carlos Correa (R)17.1%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)16.6%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)17.6%3.0

4. Braden Shewmake (L)23.3%3.0

5. Jose Altuve (R)19.5%2.6

6. Brice Matthews (R)28.3%2.0

7. Cam Smith (R)26.5%2.0

8. Yainer Diaz (R)19.8%2.0

9. Daniel Johnson (L)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)24.5%3.0

2. Trevor Larnach (L)19.1%3.0

3. Austin Martin (R)19.8%3.0

4. Victor Caratini (L)20.2%3.0

5. Luke Keaschall (R)18.6%2.7

6. Kody Clemens (L)24.9%2.0

7. Royce Lewis (R)25.7%2.0

8. James Outman (L)27.1%2.0

9. Brooks Lee (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)19.2%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)18.0%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)18.2%3.0

4. Starling Marte (R)22.1%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)26.8%2.7

6. Jac Caglianone (L)26.4%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)24.8%2.0

8. Michael Massey (L)20.6%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)20.6%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)29.0%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)19.5%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.4%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)20.8%2.3

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.1%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)21.5%2.0

8. Felix Reyes (R)22.0%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)17.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.9% K/BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)25.6%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)15.6%3.0

3. Teoscar Hernández (R)25.4%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)19.4%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)19.6%2.8

6. Dalton Rushing (L)24.7%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)22.8%2.0

8. Miguel Rojas (R)17.6%2.0

9. Santiago Espinal (R)19.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)14.7%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)14.2%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)17.3%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)28.9%3.0

5. Daniel Schneemann (L)26.7%2.6

6. Travis Bazzana (L)20.6%2.0

7. Petey Halpin (L)21.7%2.0

8. David Fry (R)25.5%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Heliot Ramos (R)24.9%3.0

2. Rafael Devers (L)24.4%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)20.0%3.0

4. Luis Arraez (L)14.0%3.0

5. Matt Chapman (R)23.3%2.2

6. Willy Adames (R)24.5%2.0

7. Jung Hoo Lee (L)20.8%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)23.9%2.0

9. Eric Haase (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.6%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.0 BF

Expected batters faced19.0

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)23.4%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)25.4%2.0

3. Roman Anthony (L)25.4%2.0

4. Wilyer Abreu (L)20.5%2.0

5. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)18.9%2.0

6. Marcelo Mayer (L)19.0%2.0

7. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.7%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)25.8%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)15.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.3% K/BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)14.8%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.5%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.9%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)24.2%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)21.5%3.0

6. Edgar Quero (L)21.3%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)21.1%2.0

8. Luisangel Acuña (R)19.0%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.8% K/BF

vs LHB17.7%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.6%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.0%3.0

3. Jordan Walker (R)25.4%3.0

4. Alec Burleson (L)19.3%3.0

5. Masyn Winn (R)19.6%3.0

6. José Fermín (R)19.2%2.3

7. Nathan Church (L)21.5%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)26.0%2.0

9. Nolan Gorman (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)13.8%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)20.2%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)23.5%3.0

4. Ryan Vilade (R)21.2%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.1%2.9

6. Ben Williamson (R)21.2%2.0

7. Cedric Mullins (L)21.7%2.0

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)25.3%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.4%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)17.7%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)13.2%2.9

4. Matt Olson (L)22.1%2.0

5. Austin Riley (R)22.3%2.0

6. Eli White (R)23.0%2.0

7. Jonah Heim (R)19.3%2.0

8. Jorge Mateo (R)28.6%2.0

9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.4% K/BF

vs LHB17.0%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)13.0%3.0

2. Moisés Ballesteros (L)17.4%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)16.8%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)24.7%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.9%3.0

6. Michael Busch (L)23.8%2.5

7. Carson Kelly (R)21.5%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)25.4%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.8% K/BF

vs LHB16.2%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Bo Bichette (R)19.6%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)17.3%3.0

3. Austin Slater (R)22.9%3.0

4. Brett Baty (L)22.6%3.0

5. Marcus Semien (R)18.8%3.0

6. Carson Benge (L)20.8%2.6

7. Mark Vientos (R)24.5%2.0

8. Tyrone Taylor (R)20.3%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.2 BF

Expected batters faced14.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)23.6%2.0

2. Alejandro Osuna (L)21.6%2.0

3. Corey Seager (L)27.0%2.0

4. Josh Jung (R)18.9%2.0

5. Jake Burger (R)24.0%2.0

6. Evan Carter (L)26.2%1.2

7. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.4%1.0

8. Josh Smith (L)28.2%1.0

9. Kyle Higashioka (R)23.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB13.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)1.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)21.8%3.0

2. Miguel Andujar (R)18.9%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)24.6%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)18.7%2.9

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.3%2.0

6. Ty France (R)21.3%2.0

7. Bryce Johnson (R)23.4%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)23.6%2.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB18.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.5 BF

Expected batters faced13.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Luis Rengifo (R)18.1%2.0

2. William Contreras (R)21.0%2.0

3. Blake Perkins (R)18.9%2.0

4. Greg Jones (R)24.4%2.0

5. Garrett Mitchell (L)24.8%1.5

6. Brandon Lockridge (R)25.2%1.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)19.3%1.0

8. David Hamilton (L)20.3%1.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, May 3, 2026

Chase Burns (CIN) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, May 3, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K, with Parker Messick (CLE) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Chase Burns

Chase Burns (CIN) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against PIT. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and PIT has been around league average, going down 21% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Parker Messick (CLE) (89) — about 5.7 K vs ATH: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) (87) — about 6.0 K vs MIA: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) (80) — about 5.8 K vs CIN: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Spencer Strider (ATL) (78) — about 5.4 K vs COL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Max Fried (NYY) (70) — about 5.5 K vs BAL: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

TEX is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Tyler Holton is the arm to exploit it (12).
LAA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Clay Holmes is the arm to exploit it (70).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Braxton Ashcraft is the arm to exploit it (80).
MIA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Jesús Luzardo is the arm to exploit it (87).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.5 strikeouts. Top play Chase Burns punched out 7. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, May 3, 2026)?: Chase Burns (CIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against PIT. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, May 3, 2026: Chase Burns (~6.0 K), Parker Messick (~5.7 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.0 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.8 K), Spencer Strider (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Sunday, May 3, 2026?: Chase Burns punched out 7.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.