MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Sunday, May 31, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Andrew Painter. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at — fantasy/PA against righties this year, a solid bat worth about 1.63 fantasy points a trip. And Andrew Painter has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Andrew Painter too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (100) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Willi Castro (COL) (99) vs LHP Robbie Ray: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Jonah Cox (SF) (99) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Garrett Stubbs (PHI) (91) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Tyler Freeman (COL) (90) vs LHP Robbie Ray: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (90) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Taylor Ward (BAL) (83) vs RHP Spencer Miles: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Andrew Painter has been giving up points to righties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Santiago Espinal (LAD).
- RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been giving up points to righties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Garrett Stubbs (PHI), and Edmundo Sosa (PHI).
- LHP Robbie Ray has been giving up points to lefties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Willi Castro (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and Troy Johnston (COL).
- RHP Tanner Gordon has been giving up points to righties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonah Cox (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Luis Arraez (SF).
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 99.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 6 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays