NFL — every game, simulated

Matchups, player props, fantasy and defense — all read off one drive-level simulation. Pick a lane.

Matchups

Projected score, spread and win probability for every game, with the players behind each number.

Game projections

Fantasy

Fantasy points with a real floor and ceiling, in DraftKings, FanDuel, PPR, half-PPR or standard scoring.

Projected points

Season

Every player's season projected week by week, with the games we expect him to actually play.

Full-season points

Player Props

Passing, rushing and receiving projections for every player on the slate, ranked.

All boards

Defense

Tackle and sack projections driven by snap share, opponent volume and how often that opponent runs.

Tackles & sacks

Kicking

Every kicker's field goals split by distance, because 40-49 pays 4 points and 50+ pays 5.

FGs by distance

Teams

Every team's head coach, coordinators and play caller, with the schedule and its projected leaders.

Staff & schedules

Players

A page for every player we project — this week's numbers, his game log, and the usage behind them.

Player pages

Scores

Live and final scores for every game, updated through the afternoon.

Live & final

Schedule

Every game this week — kickoff times and the model's projection on each matchup.

This week's slate

Every NFL game here is simulated drive by drive, thousands of times, and every board on this page is read off the same runs. That's why the numbers agree with each other — a quarterback's passing yards are the sum of his receivers', by construction.

We also tested whether any of it beats the market, and published the answer even though it wasn't the one we wanted: on game lines and on player props, the market wins. So nothing here is sold as a pick. It's our number next to the book's, graded in the open. The defensive boards carry that grading on the page itself — including the tiers where following them would have lost money.

Team

MatchupsProjectionProjected score, spread and win probability for every game, next to the market line.Open board →ScheduleProjectionThis week's full slate with kickoff times and the model's read on each game.Open board →ScoresProjectionLive and final scores across the slate.Open board →Player PagesProjectionEvery player we project — this week's projection, his recent game log, and his snap share.Open board →

Passing All prop boards →

Passing YardsProjectionProjected passing yards for every starting quarterback this week, with the matchup and volume behind the number.Open board →Passing TDsProjectionProjected passing touchdowns for every quarterback this week, driven by his team's red-zone trips.Open board →

Rushing

Rushing YardsProjectionProjected rushing yards for every back this week — carries, matchup and goal-line role, not just last week's box score.Open board →Rush + Rec YardsProjectionProjected rushing plus receiving yards — the total-yardage view for backs and receivers who do both.Open board →

Receiving

Receiving YardsProjectionProjected receiving yards for every pass-catcher this week, built from projected targets and how his defense covers.Open board →ReceptionsProjectionProjected catches for every pass-catcher this week — useful for PPR lineups and reception props alike.Open board →Anytime TDProjectionWho is most likely to find the end zone this week — touchdown odds driven by goal-line work, not just big-play ability.Open board →

Defense

Tackles + AssistsProjectionProjected combined tackles for every defender this week, built from defensive snap share, how many plays his opponent runs, and how often that opponent runs the ball.Open board →Solo TacklesProjectionProjected solo tackles for every defender this week — the same workload model, split by how often he finishes a tackle unassisted.Open board →SacksProjectionProjected sacks for every pass rusher this week, driven by his snap share, his team's pressure rate and how often his opponent drops back.Open board →Team DefenseProjectionProjected DST points for every defense this week — sacks, takeaways and the points-allowed tier that decides most of the score, with a shutout chance for each.Open board →

Fantasy

Season ProjectionsProjectionFull-season fantasy points for every player, with a floor, a ceiling and the games he's expected to play.Open board →Fantasy PointsProjectionProjected points with a floor and ceiling from the same simulation, in five scoring systems.Open board →KickingProjectionField goals by distance and extra points — the 40-49 and 50+ makes that pay 4 and 5 points.Open board →Team DefenseProjectionDST points for every defense — sacks, takeaways and the points-allowed tier, with a shutout chance.Open board →

NFL model — FAQ

Are these betting picks?

No. Every NFL number here is a projection, published as graded transparency rather than a play. We tested the game markets and the player props against real closing lines and the market won both — so we show our number, show the market's, and let you judge.

How are the projections built?

Each game is simulated drive by drive, thousands of times, and every board is read off the same runs. That's why the numbers reconcile: a quarterback's passing yards equal the sum of his receivers' by construction, not by a correction applied afterwards.

Why does a defender's tackle projection move with the opponent?

A run play produces about 1.73x the tackle credits of a pass play — an incompletion produces none at all. So a defensive lineman facing a run-heavy offense is worth far more tackles, and a cornerback is worth fewer. The simulation already draws a pass/run split per drive, so that falls out of it rather than being bolted on.

Do rookies get projections?

Yes. A rookie has no NFL history to model, so he's seeded from his depth-chart rank using the share players at that rank actually earn, then given league-average efficiency for his position. A charted WR1 is modelled as a WR1 even if he has never taken a snap.