Daily fantasy baseball rewards two things: getting the projections right and building the lineup around them correctly. The tools here do both — and unlike most DFS sites, the projections that feed the optimizer are graded against real box scores in the open. If you want to know whether the numbers are any good before you trust them, you can just check.
The projections — graded in public
MatchWiz publishes daily projected DraftKings points for every hitter and starting pitcher on the slate. Hitter projections factor in the opposing arm, handedness, batting order, ballpark, and recent form. Pitcher projections are built up from the same matchup model — strikeout rate and outs recorded scored against the specific lineup, then rolled into DK scoring. Both are graded against real results after every game.
The value column — projected points per thousand dollars of salary — is the practical shorthand. A cheaper bat projecting well for his price can be a better roster piece than a more expensive name at a lower rate, because he frees up cap to pay up at pitcher or lock a stack. The hitter projections board and pitcher projections board both show the projection, the salary, and the value side by side — sort by value and you see which spots are actually mis-priced for today.
The optimizer
The free lineup optimizer builds cap-legal DraftKings lineups that maximize our projected points, with the constraints that matter baked in: team stacking, two pitchers from different games, player locks and excludes, and exposure limits across a set of lineups. It runs in two modes — build-your-own (tap players in, let it complete the lineup optimally around your core) and auto-generate (one-click Cash and Tournament presets). Every lineup exports to a DraftKings CSV for bulk upload.
The no-two-pitchers-from-the-same-game constraint runs automatically, because the full-season backtest on real winning lineups confirmed it almost never pays to cross pitchers from the same game. Cash and Tournament presets handle the floor-vs-ceiling tradeoff differently, because those are two different games that most people play the same way — and shouldn't.
The strategy guide
If you're newer to MLB DFS — or you want to understand why the tools are built the way they are — the DFS Strategy Guide covers the structural edges in daily fantasy baseball: DraftKings scoring and why it's bursty, why stacking wins in tournaments, how cash games and GPPs demand different lineups, and how to actually spend the cap. It's written to explain the math, not to sell a service.
Points per $1,000 is the number that matters
Raw projected points will steer you wrong. A $6,200 bat projected for 9 points is a better roster slot than a $10,800 bat projected for 13, because the cap is the binding constraint — every dollar you spend at the top is a dollar you can't spend filling the other eight slots. That's why the boards show value alongside the projection: points per $1,000 of salary is what actually builds a lineup.
Value has its own trap, though. The cheapest arms clear on value precisely because nobody expects much of them, and a punt play that busts costs you the slot entirely. Value is a sorting tool for finding the middle of the board, not an instruction to roster the top of that column.
Where the projections are weakest
Two spots, and both are worth knowing before you trust a number.
Batting order moves late. Our projection assumes a lineup slot, and slot drives plate appearances more than almost anything else. A hitter we projected batting second who ends up seventh loses close to a full trip to the plate — and lineups get posted late enough that an afternoon build can be stale by lock. Confirmed lineups are marked on every board for exactly this reason.
Pitchers coming off the injured list. A projection built on a starter's healthy workload will badly overshoot a 65-pitch rehab start, and no stat line tells you the limit is coming. We flag long layoffs on the player page; treat any pitcher projection in that spot as a ceiling, not an expectation.
Neither of these is a reason to ignore the numbers. They're the two places to apply your own judgment on top of them, which is what the flags are there to support.
MLB fantasy — FAQ
Which DFS sites do you support?
DraftKings Classic — the standard MLB format with a $50,000 cap, 2 pitchers, a catcher, corner infielders, middle infielders, and 3 outfielders. The projections are scored in DraftKings points, salaries are pulled from DraftKings' public draftables, and the optimizer exports a DK-format CSV for bulk upload.
How often are the projections updated?
Every morning after the day's lineup and odds data land, and they refresh through the day as starting lineups update. The projection re-tunes the matchup — opposing starter, handedness, ballpark, batting order — so a late lineup change actually changes the number, not just a name swap.
Are the DFS projections graded? How can I check them?
Yes — every projected DraftKings total is scored against the player's actual DK score after games finish. The full archive rolls back day by day on the Fantasy Points board, so you can pick any past date and see what we projected vs. what actually scored. Most DFS tools won't show you that; we built it in from the start.
How does the lineup optimizer handle stacking?
The optimizer includes team-stacking logic — it builds in correlation by grouping hitters from the same team and batting-order run, and it enforces the no-two-pitchers-from-the-same-game constraint automatically. You can set player locks and excludes, tune stacking depth, and cap exposure across a set of lineups. Cash and Tournament presets handle the floor vs. ceiling tradeoff without manual config.
What's the DFS Strategy Guide?
A straight-talking writeup on how daily fantasy baseball actually works — DraftKings scoring, why stacking is the structural edge, cash games vs tournaments, how to spend the cap intelligently, and the five mistakes that quietly cost people money. It explains the math behind the tools rather than telling you what to do.
Projections are a research signal graded against real results — not betting advice. 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).