MLS Match Board
Every match priced by our xG-driven goal model — our line (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven it can out-price the books — nothing here is a pick. A ◆ lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
Saturday, July 25
Charlotte FC at Red Bull New York6:30 PM EDT
RBNY+148 (40%)books 43%
Draw+307 (25%)books 25%
CLT+184 (35%)books 32%
xG 1.8–1.6O2.5 66%BTTS 68% / books 68%
FC Cincinnati at Columbus Crew7:15 PM EDT
CLB+110 (48%)books 47%
Draw+315 (24%)books 24%
CIN+252 (28%)books 29%
xG 1.9–1.5O2.5 65%BTTS 66% / books 66%
Inter Miami CF at CF Montréal7:30 PM EDT
MTL+199 (33%)books 33%
Draw+335 (23%)books 24%
MIA+129 (44%)books 43%
xG 1.7–2.0O2.5 72%BTTS 72% / books 69%
Toronto FC at D.C. United7:30 PM EDT
DC+130 (44%)books 44%
Draw+252 (28%)books 27%
TOR+256 (28%)books 29%
xG 1.5–1.1O2.5 48% / books 53%BTTS 54% / books 57%
Atlanta United FC at New England Revolution7:30 PM EDT
NE+144 (41%)books 45%
Draw+268 (27%)books 27%
ATL+214 (32%)books 28%
xG 1.5–1.3O2.5 54% / books 54%BTTS 59% / books 59%
Chicago Fire FC at New York City FC7:30 PM EDT
◆ NYC+147 (40%)books 35%
Draw+291 (26%)books 26%
CHI+195 (34%)books 39%
xG 1.7–1.5O2.5 61% / books 58%BTTS 64% / books 62%
Nashville SC at Orlando City SC7:30 PM EDT
ORL+168 (37%)books 34%
Draw+298 (25%)books 25%
NSH+166 (38%)books 41%
xG 1.6–1.6O2.5 64% / books 60%BTTS 66% / books 64%
Seattle Sounders FC at Philadelphia Union7:30 PM EDT
PHI+108 (48%)books 51%
Draw+307 (25%)books 24%
SEA+265 (27%)books 24%
xG 1.9–1.4O2.5 63% / books 59%BTTS 64% / books 61%
Austin FC at Houston Dynamo FC8:30 PM EDT
HOU-108 (52%)books 56%
Draw+282 (26%)books 24%
ATX+358 (22%)books 20%
xG 1.7–1.0O2.5 52% / books 54%BTTS 54% / books 55%
Vancouver Whitecaps at Minnesota United FC8:30 PM EDT
MIN+247 (29%)books 28%
Draw+308 (25%)books 25%
VAN+114 (47%)books 47%
xG 1.4–1.9O2.5 64% / books 60%BTTS 65% / books 62%
Colorado Rapids at St. Louis CITY SC8:30 PM EDT
STL+108 (48%)books 47%
Draw+302 (25%)books 25%
COL+271 (27%)books 27%
xG 1.8–1.3O2.5 61% / books 58%BTTS 63% / books 61%
FC Dallas at San Diego FC9:30 PM EDT
SD+146 (41%)books 42%
Draw+304 (25%)books 24%
DAL+189 (35%)books 34%
xG 1.7–1.6O2.5 65%BTTS 67% / books 68%
Sporting Kansas City at LAFC10:30 PM EDT
LAFC-235 (70%)books 75%
Draw+453 (18%)books 14%
SKC+752 (12%)books 10%
xG 2.5–1.0O2.5 67%BTTS 58% / books 57%
Real Salt Lake at Portland Timbers10:30 PM EDT
POR+134 (43%)books 39%
Draw+302 (25%)books 25%
RSL+209 (32%)books 36%
xG 1.8–1.5O2.5 64%BTTS 66% / books 68%
LA Galaxy at San Jose Earthquakes10:30 PM EDT
SJ-113 (53%)books 51%
Draw+351 (22%)books 23%
LA+305 (25%)books 26%
xG 2.2–1.5O2.5 70%BTTS 69% / books 66%
Friday, July 31
Toronto FC at New York City FC7:30 PM EDT
NYC+113 (47%)no line
Draw+252 (28%)no line
TOR+305 (25%)no line
xG 1.5–1.0O2.5 46%BTTS 51%
Our line = the odds our model's probability implies, from an xG-blended Dixon-Coles goal model. books = the median vig-free probability across the US books we track. xG = each side's expected goals in this matchup. Lines move — always confirm at the book. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).