MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Friday, June 5, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Sproat. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at — fantasy/PA against righties this year, a solid bat worth about 1.63 fantasy points a trip. And Brandon Sproat has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Brandon Sproat too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Tyler Freeman (COL) (91) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (91) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Chad Stevens (COL) (83) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (83) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (81) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Casey Schmitt (SF) (78) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Brandon Sproat has been giving up points to righties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and Chad Stevens (COL).
- RHP Ryan Feltner has been giving up points to righties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Christian Yelich (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Brice Turang (MIL).
- LHP Reid Detmers has been giving up points to lefties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
- RHP Edward Cabrera has been giving up points to righties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Casey Schmitt (SF), Eric Haase (SF), and Luis Arraez (SF).
Best parks for fantasy points today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% fantasy park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Jake McCarthy finished with 15 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays