Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, April 29, 2026
Top hits spot: Moisés Ballesteros
Moisés Ballesteros (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Matt Waldron. The lefty is hitting .338 H/PA against righties this year — and .367 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Matt Waldron has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .500 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Matt Waldron, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (84) vs RHP JR Ritchie: an excellent bat at .291 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.217), hot bat.
- Ernie Clement (TOR) (83) vs RHP Brayan Bello: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316), due to bounce back.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (81) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), hot bat.
- Josh Jung (TEX) (80) vs RHP Elmer Rodríguez: an excellent bat at .286 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (79) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a solid bat at .249 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400).
- Jordan Beck (COL) (77) vs LHP Brandon Williamson: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.237).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (74) vs RHP George Kirby: a solid bat at .249 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Matt Waldron has been getting tattooed by righties — .324 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Moisés Ballesteros (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Ian Happ (CHC).
- RHP Cade Cavalli has been getting tattooed by righties — .293 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Juan Soto (NYM), Bo Bichette (NYM), and Austin Slater (NYM).
- RHP Nathan Eovaldi has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ben Rice (NYY), Aaron Judge (NYY), and Cody Bellinger (NYY).
- RHP George Kirby has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Byron Buxton (MIN), Austin Martin (MIN), and Luke Keaschall (MIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Moisés Ballesteros (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .338 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .299 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .340 against lefties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .342 against righties this year.
- Jordan Beck (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .333 against lefties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Ozzie Albies (ATL), Josh Jung (TEX), Carlos Cortes (ATH), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and JJ Wetherholt (STL). Cold but due to bounce back: Ernie Clement (TOR), Brady House (WSH), Michael Busch (CHC), Austin Slater (NYM), and Carter Jensen (KC).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Moisés Ballesteros finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.