Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, April 30, 2026
Top hits spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Young. The lefty is hitting .264 H/PA against righties this year — and .421 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Brandon Young has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .333 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Brandon Young too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (96) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.353).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (91) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: an excellent bat at .290 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278), hot bat.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (91) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.347).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (90) vs LHP Noah Cameron: an excellent bat at .296 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.289).
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (89) vs LHP Tim Mayza: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (87) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: a solid bat at .242 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
- Matt Chapman (SF) (84) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a strong bat at .252 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.347), due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting tattooed by righties — .303 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), and TJ Friedl (CIN).
- RHP Adrian Houser has been getting tattooed by righties — .301 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Bryson Stott (PHI).
- LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been vulnerable to lefties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Heliot Ramos (SF), Matt Chapman (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
- LHP Andrew Abbott has been vulnerable to lefties — .280 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Mickey Moniak (COL), and Willi Castro (COL).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .264 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .390 against righties this year.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .367 against lefties this year.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .286 against lefties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .324 against lefties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Jake McCarthy (COL), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Kevin McGonigle (DET), and Ozzie Albies (ATL). Cold but due to bounce back: Matt Chapman (SF), Matt Chapman (SF), Gleyber Torres (DET), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and Austin Slater (NYM).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Yordan Alvarez finished with 3 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.