Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, May 6, 2026
Top hits spot: Xavier Edwards
Xavier Edwards (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Young. The lefty is hitting .288 H/PA against righties this year — and .273 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Brandon Young has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .364 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 6 career PA against Brandon Young, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (97) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .247 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (94) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an elite bat at .305 into an arm tough on the same side (.171), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) (90) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .264 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.353).
- Josh Jung (TEX) (86) vs RHP Will Warren: an elite bat at .300 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.241), hot bat.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (86) vs LHP Cole Ragans: an excellent bat at .299 into an arm tough on the same side (.100), hot bat.
- Maikel Garcia (KC) (86) vs LHP Joey Cantillo: a strong bat at .267 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.281), due to bounce back.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (84) vs RHP Brandon Young: a strong bat at .260 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Juan Soto (NYM), Bo Bichette (NYM), and Mark Vientos (NYM).
- RHP Colin Rea has been vulnerable to righties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Bleday (CIN), Dane Myers (CIN), and Elly De La Cruz (CIN).
- RHP Michael Soroka has been vulnerable to righties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ryan O'Hearn (PIT), Oneil Cruz (PIT), and Brandon Lowe (PIT).
- RHP Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brooks Lee (MIN), Trevor Larnach (MIN), and James Outman (MIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .288 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .309 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .344 against righties this year.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .266 against righties this year.
- Maikel Garcia (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .357 against lefties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Juan Soto (NYM) at 97.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Mickey Moniak (COL), Josh Jung (TEX), Chase DeLauter (CLE), Matt Olson (ATL), and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC). Cold but due to bounce back: Juan Soto (NYM), Maikel Garcia (KC), Michael Harris II (ATL), Edouard Julien (COL), and Ryan O'Hearn (PIT).
How it played out
5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Xavier Edwards finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.