Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Willy Adames
Willy Adames (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The righty is stacking production at — (H+R+RBI)/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a H+R+RBI in about 45% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .281 in 32 career PA against Merrill Kelly. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (96) vs RHP Ben Brown: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (96) vs RHP Carmen Mlodzinski: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Taylor Ward (BAL) (96) vs LHP Shane McClanahan: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (96) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (96) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up production today
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up production to righties — .450 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Willy Adames (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
- RHP Tanner Gordon has been giving up production to righties — .450 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
- RHP Emmet Sheehan has been giving up production to righties — .450 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Hunter Goodman (COL), and Edouard Julien (COL).
- RHP Ben Brown has been giving up production to righties — .450 H+R+RBI per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Horwitz (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Willy Adames finished with 2 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the hits + runs + RBIs board is
The H+R+RBI board projects a hitter's combined H+R+RBI vs the book's line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, run, and RBI projections, composed from the tuned component boards.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from our tuned hit/run/RBI numbers, this grades efficient — no edge in any gap bin. Transparency board.
How to use it
A tidy one-number read on a hitter's all-around night; research, not a play.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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