Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. The lefty is going deep on .051 HR/PA against righties this year — and .103 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Jared Jones has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jared Jones. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (96) vs RHP Nick Martinez: real bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (79) vs RHP Drew Anderson: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.105), hot bat.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (72) vs RHP Chase Burns: real bat at .048 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.035).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (72) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: big-time bat at .053 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (69) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: real bat at .047 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.027), due to bounce back.
- James Wood (WSH) (68) vs RHP Mitch Spence: real bat at .043 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (61) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: real bat at .040 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .041 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 2 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.