Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is going deep on .051 HR/PA against righties this year — and .103 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Mitch Keller has been mostly containing righties lately — .029 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Mitch Keller too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (86) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: real bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (78) vs RHP Tyler Phillips: big-time bat at .053 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.048), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (78) vs RHP Michael Wacha: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056), hot bat.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (69) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: big-time bat at .055 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (68) vs RHP Brady Singer: real bat at .048 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (64) vs RHP Jack Perkins: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (64) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: big-time bat at .051 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.214).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .041 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.