Who has the best home runs matchup today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?

Nick Kurtz (ATH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Braxton Ashcraft. Real bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Nick Kurtz (100), Kyle Schwarber (88), James Wood (84), Yordan Alvarez (82), Hunter Goodman (73). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Wednesday, June 17, 2026?

No — Nick Kurtz didn't record a home run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year. Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.

What are park factors?

This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB home runs matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Every slugger on the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run. Results show how each call played out.

Get notified on every DINGER today. Distance, exit velo, and launch angle the moment anyone goes yard — turn on live HR alerts.

How the model did — Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on 1+ home run, against 22% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 22%

Top 10

1/1010%

season 22%

Full slate

40/25216%

season 11%

Top call Hunter Goodman came through. Nick Kurtz didn't.

Each slugger below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average slugger in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 9–1

NYMaway

CINhomeTop matchup46 Final · 6–2

KCaway

WSHhomeTop matchup84 Final · 12–4

MIAaway

PHIhomeTop matchup88 Final · 2–4

DETaway

HOUhomeTop matchup82 Final · 6–1

SDaway

STLhomeTop matchup65 Final · 4–5

TBaway

LADhomeTop matchup59 Final · 1–8

LAAaway

AZhomeTop matchup54 Final · 3–0

TORaway

BOShomeTop matchup44 Final · 5–10

CWSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup52 Final · 7–5

SFaway

ATLhomeTop matchup57 Final · 4–9

CLEaway

MILhomeTop matchup48 Final · 6–8

COLaway

CHChomeTop matchup73 Final · 5–3

BALaway

SEAhomeTop matchup59 Final · 12–4

PITaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100

Not starting61 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 313 shownScore

40 with a HRMost recent first — newest homer up top

1
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@SEA· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #156
2
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsBAL· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #11
3
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@SEA· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #49
4
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@ATH· 3-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #75
5
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #85
6
Marcell OzunaDH
PIT@ATH· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #100
7
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #203
8
Cole Young2B
SEAvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #208
9
Sterlin ThompsonRF
COL@CHC· 3-for-4
2HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #149
10
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #5
11
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #79
12
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #136
13
Kyle Karros3B
COL@CHC· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #200
14
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #36
15
Christian YelichDH
MILvsCLE· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #70
16
Daniel SchneemannCF
CLE@MIL· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #176
17
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@ATL· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #22
18
Willy AdamesSS
SF@ATL· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #41
19
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #134
20
Luis Arraez2B
SF@ATL· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #241
21
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@NYY· 2-for-4
2HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #81
22
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYYvsCWS· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #17
23
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #138
24
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsCWS· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #147
25
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@NYY· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #232
26
Zach NetoSS
LAA@AZ· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #47
27
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsLAA· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #88
28
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsTB· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #77
29
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@STL· 3-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #52
30
Kerry CarpenterRF
DET@HOU· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #26
31
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsDET· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #166
32
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@HOU· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #183
33
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@PHI· 4-for-5
2HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #30
34
Carter JensenC
KC@WSH· 4-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #19
35
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #80
36
Michael Massey2B
KC@WSH· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #98
37
Lane ThomasLF
KC@WSH· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #135
38
Joe MackC
MIA@PHI· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #145
39
John RaveRF
KC@WSH· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #167
40
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #242

Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Nick Kurtz (ATH) is the top home runs matchup on the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 board at 100, with Kyle Schwarber (PHI) and James Wood (WSH) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run — power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Braxton Ashcraft. The lefty is going deep on .051 HR/PA against righties this year — and .103 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Braxton Ashcraft has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .050 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Braxton Ashcraft, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (88) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: big-time bat at .053 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033), hot bat.
James Wood (WSH) (84) vs RHP Luinder Avila: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091), hot bat.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (82) vs RHP Casey Mize: real bat at .047 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Hunter Goodman (COL) (73) vs RHP Javier Assad: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Brandon Lowe (PIT) (67) vs RHP Aaron Civale: real bat at .047 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Alec Burleson (STL) (65) vs RHP Bradgley Rodriguez: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Bryce Harper (PHI) (60) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: real bat at .044 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033), due to bounce back.

Platoon edges to target

Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.

How it played out

1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these home runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the home runs board is

The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
The park's home-run environment and the wind.
How hard and how often he hits it in the air.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.

How to use it

Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?: Nick Kurtz (ATH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Braxton Ashcraft. Real bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?: The top home runs matchups on Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Nick Kurtz (100), Kyle Schwarber (88), James Wood (84), Yordan Alvarez (82), Hunter Goodman (73). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.
Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Wednesday, June 17, 2026?: No — Nick Kurtz didn't record a home run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year. Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
How is the home runs matchup score calculated?: It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.
What does HR/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.
What are park factors?: This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.