Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Braxton Ashcraft. The lefty is going deep on .051 HR/PA against righties this year — and .103 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Braxton Ashcraft has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .050 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Braxton Ashcraft, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (88) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: big-time bat at .053 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (84) vs RHP Luinder Avila: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (82) vs RHP Casey Mize: real bat at .047 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (73) vs RHP Javier Assad: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (67) vs RHP Aaron Civale: real bat at .047 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (65) vs RHP Bradgley Rodriguez: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (60) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: real bat at .044 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.