Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, June 18, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The lefty is going deep on .058 HR/PA against righties this year — and .125 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Ryan Johnson too — 1.000 across 1 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (80) vs RHP Aaron Nola: real bat at .047 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.032).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (80) vs RHP Jack Leiter: big-time bat at .055 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (75) vs LHP Sean Manaea: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (69) vs RHP Sean Burke: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.111).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (53) vs RHP Bryan Woo: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050).
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) (51) vs RHP Shane Baz: real bat at .041 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050), hot bat.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (50) vs RHP Landen Roupp: real bat at .042 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .058 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .059 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.