Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, June 20, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Walbert Ureña. The lefty is going deep on .057 HR/PA against righties this year — and .119 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Walbert Ureña has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .050 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Walbert Ureña too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (100) vs RHP Zac Gallen: big-time bat at .055 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (91) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: big-time bat at .053 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.031).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (80) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (75) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: real bat at .047 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.035).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (74) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (73) vs RHP Paul Skenes: big-time bat at .051 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071).
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (71) vs RHP Troy Melton: real bat at .048 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.188).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .049 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the home runs board is
The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
- The park's home-run environment and the wind.
- How hard and how often he hits it in the air.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.
How to use it
Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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