Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, June 20, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Walbert Ureña. The lefty is going deep on .057 HR/PA against righties this year — and .119 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Walbert Ureña has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .050 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Walbert Ureña too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (100) vs RHP Zac Gallen: big-time bat at .055 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (91) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: big-time bat at .053 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.031).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (80) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (75) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: real bat at .047 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.035).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (74) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (73) vs RHP Paul Skenes: big-time bat at .051 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071).
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (71) vs RHP Troy Melton: real bat at .048 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.188).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .049 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.