Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Top home runs spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zack Wheeler. The lefty is going deep on .078 HR/PA against righties this year — and .068 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Zack Wheeler has been mostly containing righties lately — .027 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .203 in 64 career PA against Zack Wheeler. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Brandon Young: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.023).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (80) vs RHP Jose Cabrera: big-time bat at .055 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (79) vs LHP David Peterson: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (79) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: real bat at .047 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.048), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (78) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: real bat at .046 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (69) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- James Wood (WSH) (67) vs RHP Nick Martinez: real bat at .042 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.032).
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .044 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Juan Soto finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.