Who has the best home runs matchup today (Friday, June 19, 2026)?

Pete Alonso (BAL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Roki Sasaki. Real bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Friday, June 19, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Friday, June 19, 2026: Pete Alonso (100), Nick Kurtz (100), Ben Rice (83), Yordan Alvarez (81), Max Muncy (80). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Friday, June 19, 2026?

Yes — Pete Alonso got 1 home run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year. Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .073 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year. Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .060 against righties this year. Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .036 against righties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.

What are park factors?

This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB home runs matchups — Friday, June 19, 2026

Every slugger on the Friday, June 19, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run. Results show how each call played out.

Get notified on every DINGER today. Distance, exit velo, and launch angle the moment anyone goes yard — turn on live HR alerts.

How the model did — Friday, June 19, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ home run, against 22% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 22%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 22%

Full slate

38/25215%

season 11%

Top call Pete Alonso came through. Nick Kurtz didn't.

Each slugger below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average slugger in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–16

TORaway

CHChomeTop matchup65 Final · 3–4

CWSaway

DEThomeTop matchup45 Final · 0–5

CINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup83 Final · 2–5

WSHaway

TBhomeTop matchup62 Final · 3–4

SFaway

MIAhomeTop matchup43 Final · 2–3

MILaway

ATLhomeTop matchup60 Final · 7–9

SDaway

TEXhomeTop matchup37 Final · 3–9

CLEaway

HOUhomeTop matchup81 Final · 5–6

STLaway

KChomeTop matchup48 Final · 3–4

PITaway

COLhomeTop matchup63 Final · 11–12

LAAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–9

MINaway

AZhomeTop matchup69 Final · 5–6

BALaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–2

BOSaway

SEAhomeTop matchup66

Not starting45 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 297 shownScore

39 with a HRMost recent first — newest homer up top

1
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsLAA· 1-for-1
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR
2
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #8
3
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@SEA· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #242
4
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #1
5
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #6
6
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsBAL· 3-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #44
7
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #22
8
Josh BellDH
MIN@AZ· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #111
9
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@AZ· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #195
10
Victor CaratiniC
MIN@AZ· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #204
11
Zach NetoSS
LAA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #28
12
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #103
13
Jose SiriCF
LAA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #108
14
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsLAA· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #122
15
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@ATH· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #141
16
Logan O'HoppeC
LAA@ATH· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #182
17
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsLAA· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #226
18
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsPIT· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #74
19
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsSTL· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #76
20
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsCLE· 3-for-5
2HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #142
21
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLE@HOU· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #124
22
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsCLE· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #136
23
Ty France1B
SD@TEX· 3-for-4
2HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #207
24
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@TEX· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #75
25
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsSD· 3-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #114
26
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #113
27
Rafael Devers1B
SF@MIA· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #39
28
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@TB· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #66
29
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsSF· 3-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #68
30
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@TB· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #77
31
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #143
32
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #152
33
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsCIN· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #3
34
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #45
35
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@DET· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #32
36
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #121
37
Junior PerezCF
CWS@DET· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #134
38
George SpringerDH
TOR@CHC· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #40
39
Carson KellyC
CHCvsTOR· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #211

Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, June 19, 2026

Pete Alonso (BAL) is the top home runs matchup on the Friday, June 19, 2026 board at 100, with Nick Kurtz (ATH) and Ben Rice (NYY) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run — power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top home runs spot: Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Roki Sasaki. The righty is going deep on .054 HR/PA against righties this year — and .073 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 4% of his trips. And Roki Sasaki has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Roki Sasaki. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs RHP José Soriano: real bat at .050 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.057), hot bat.
Ben Rice (NYY) (83) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: real bat at .046 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042), hot bat.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (81) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: real bat at .046 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036), hot bat.
Max Muncy (LAD) (80) vs RHP Trey Gibson: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.063), due to bounce back.
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (70) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: solid bat at .034 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038).
Byron Buxton (MIN) (69) vs RHP Michael Soroka: big-time bat at .055 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (66) vs LHP Ranger Suarez: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).

Platoon edges to target

Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year.
Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .073 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .060 against righties this year.
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .036 against righties this year.

How it played out

4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Pete Alonso finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these home runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the home runs board is

The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
The park's home-run environment and the wind.
How hard and how often he hits it in the air.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.

How to use it

Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Friday, June 19, 2026)?: Pete Alonso (BAL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Roki Sasaki. Real bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Friday, June 19, 2026)?: The top home runs matchups on Friday, June 19, 2026: Pete Alonso (100), Nick Kurtz (100), Ben Rice (83), Yordan Alvarez (81), Max Muncy (80). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.
Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Friday, June 19, 2026?: Yes — Pete Alonso got 1 home run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year. Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .073 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year. Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .060 against righties this year. Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .036 against righties this year.
How is the home runs matchup score calculated?: It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.
What does HR/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.
What are park factors?: This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.