Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026
Top home runs spot: Matt Olson
Matt Olson (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael King. The lefty is going deep on .065 HR/PA against righties this year — and .053 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 4% of his trips. And Michael King has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .053 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Michael King, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: big-time bat at .053 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.035).
- Willson Contreras (BOS) (99) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: solid bat at .038 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040), due to bounce back.
- Coby Mayo (BAL) (95) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Jarren Duran (BOS) (93) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: solid bat at .036 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056), due to bounce back.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (91) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (89) vs LHP Foster Griffin: big-time bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (87) vs RHP Michael King: solid bat at .038 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .047 against righties this year.
- Coby Mayo (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .103 against lefties this year.
- Jarren Duran (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .047 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Matt Olson finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.