Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 2, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. The lefty is going deep on .089 HR/PA against righties this year — and .125 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 8% of his trips. And Jared Jones has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Jared Jones too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (98) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: big-time bat at .063 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (84) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: elite bat at .068 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.143), hot bat.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (72) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: big-time bat at .065 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (70) vs RHP Jared Jones: big-time bat at .060 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kerry Carpenter (DET) (67) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: big-time bat at .062 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (64) vs RHP Alan Rangel: big-time bat at .058 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.037).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (61) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: big-time bat at .056 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .089 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .047 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
- Kerry Carpenter (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
162 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.