Best MLB fantasy points matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, June 23, 2026 slate — ranked by projected DraftKings fantasy points. Results show how each call played out.
Each starting pitcher below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average starting pitcher in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →
PROJ1 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitchⓘ
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
30 with a ptsLive count — updates as games play
1
Brandon SproatP
MIL@CIN
36.9ptsFinal
Proj 12.0 pts, #21
2
Sonny GrayP
BOS@COL
34.35ptsFinal
Proj 15.2 pts, #7
3
Ryan JohnsonP
LAAvsBAL
32.3ptsFinal
Proj 6.7 pts, #31
4
Parker MessickP
CLE@CWS
30.85ptsFinal
Proj 17.4 pts, #2
5
Robbie RayP
SFvsATH
30.4ptsFinal
Proj 13.7 pts, #15
6
Jesús LuzardoP
PHI@WSH
25.6ptsFinal
Proj 15.7 pts, #5
7
Sean BurkeP
CWSvsCLE
24.05ptsFinal
Proj 15.4 pts, #8
8
Eduardo RodriguezP
AZ@STL
21.4ptsFinal
Proj 14.6 pts, #13
9
Luinder AvilaP
KC@TB
21.05ptsFinal
Proj 8.0 pts, #27
10
Sandy AlcantaraP
MIAvsTEX
20.2ptsFinal
Proj 15.8 pts, #4
11
George KirbyP
SEA@PIT
19.5ptsFinal
Proj 14.0 pts, #14
12
Nick LodoloP
CINvsMIL
19.2ptsFinal
Proj 10.3 pts, #24
13
Justin WrobleskiP
LAD@MIN
17.55ptsFinal
Proj 15.1 pts, #9
14
Kyle LeahyP
STLvsAZ
17.25ptsFinal
Proj 11.9 pts, #22
15
Carlos RodónP
NYY@DET
15.2ptsFinal
Proj 16.3 pts, #3
16
Edward CabreraP
CHC@NYM
15.05ptsFinal
Proj 12.3 pts, #19
17
Shane McClanahanP
TBvsKC
13.3ptsFinal
Proj 14.7 pts, #12
18
Peter LambertP
HOU@TOR
13.1ptsFinal
Proj 15.4 pts, #6
19
Zack LittellP
WSHvsPHI
12ptsFinal
Proj 9.2 pts, #26
20
JR RitchieP
ATL@SD
11.85ptsFinal
Proj 13.3 pts, #17
21
Aaron CivaleP
ATH@SF
11.4ptsFinal
Proj 13.3 pts, #16
22
Casey MizeP
DETvsNYY
11.35ptsFinal
Proj 14.8 pts, #10
23
Mitch KellerP
PITvsSEA
10.7ptsFinal
Proj 12.1 pts, #20
24
Kendry RojasP
MINvsLAD
8.1ptsFinal
Proj 11.5 pts, #23
25
Wandy PeraltaP
SDvsATL
6.25ptsFinal
Proj 7.0 pts, #28
26
Shane BazP
BAL@LAA
5.85ptsFinal
Proj 17.1 pts, #1
27
Sean SullivanP
COLvsBOS
5.25ptsFinal
Proj 12.3 pts, #18
28
PJ PoulinP
WSHvsPHI
4.25ptsFinal
Proj 6.4 pts, #30
29
Cal QuantrillP
TEX@MIA
2.7ptsFinal
Proj 6.5 pts, #29
30
Kodai SengaP
NYMvsCHC
1.45ptsFinal
Proj 9.9 pts, #25
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Fantasy Points Matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Shane Baz (BAL) leads the Tuesday, June 23, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 17.1 pts is the model's top DK pitcher tonight. Parker Messick (CLE) is next at 100. This board composes every arm's full stat line into one DraftKings number — the roster decision, priced.
Top spot: Shane Baz
Shane Baz (BAL) is the projected points leader at about 17.1 pts against LAA — the full package of innings, whiffs, and a live win chance, netted against the damage he figures to allow.
The rest of the top of the board
Parker Messick (CLE) (100) — about 17.4 pts vs CWS.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) (91) — about 16.3 pts vs DET.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) (85) — about 15.8 pts vs TEX.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) (85) — about 15.7 pts vs WSH.
Peter Lambert (HOU) (82) — about 15.4 pts vs TOR.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 19.8 pts. Shane Baz finished with 5.85. Every projection is graded against the box score.
What actually makes a DK pitching score
DraftKings pitcher scoring is strikeouts and innings, with everything else as seasoning: IP ×2.25, K ×2, a +4 win bonus, and deductions for earned runs (−2), hits (−0.6), and walks (−0.6). Run the math and the shape is clear — a seven-inning, eight-strikeout start is worth ~31.75 before the win bonus, and no realistic ER line erases that. So ceiling lives where whiffs meet a long leash, and the win bonus is why the model carries a win probability for every start rather than treating pitching points as a rate stat. Salary decides the rest: the slate's best arm and the slate's best price are rarely the same card.
How to read the fantasy points board
Each starter's projected DK points are composed from the model's own component boards — projected outs, strikeouts, earned runs, hits, and walks, plus his win probability — scored with the actual DraftKings formula (IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6). The 0–100 score ranks tonight's slate; the points number is the projection itself, graded against the real box score once the game's final.
The Fantasy Points board projects a starter's projected DraftKings fantasy points. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His strikeout, outs, earned-run, hits and walks projections, composed via the DK pitcher formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Composed from the tuned pitcher boards, so it inherits their sharpness. A DFS tool, not a book market.
How to use it
The pitcher side of the DFS build — sort by value, then lock a top arm in the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Which pitcher has the best fantasy points matchup today (Tuesday, June 23, 2026)?
Shane Baz (BAL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 17.1 pts against LAA.
What are the best pitcher fantasy points props today?
The top projected starts on Tuesday, June 23, 2026: Shane Baz (~17.1 pts), Parker Messick (~17.4 pts), Carlos Rodón (~16.3 pts), Sandy Alcantara (~15.8 pts), Jesús Luzardo (~15.7 pts). The full board ranks every starter.
How are DraftKings pitcher points calculated?
IP ×2.25, K ×2, Win ×4, ER −2, H −0.6, BB −0.6, plus rare bonuses for complete games and no-hitters. Innings and strikeouts dominate — which is why leash and whiffs, together, are what this board is really ranking.
Should I pay up for the top projected pitcher in DFS?
In cash games, usually — pitcher is the highest-variance-reduction slot on the roster. In tournaments, check the salary column first: the top projection at full price and a near-equal projection at a discount are different decisions, and the discount often wins the leverage math.
How is the fantasy points score calculated?
Ranked by projected DraftKings fantasy points — innings, strikeouts, the win, and the runs / hits / walks allowed. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected fantasy points number alongside, and graded against the box score. The exact weighting is our own, tuned weekly against results.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best fantasy points spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
