Best MLB earned runs matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Monday, June 15, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload10.0 BF
Expected batters faced10.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)10.0%2.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)13.5%1.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)10.6%1.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)13.3%1.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)9.5%1.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R)10.6%1.0
7. Matt McLain (R)11.7%1.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)8.5%1.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-155
We project 1.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload10.4 BF
Expected batters faced10.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)10.9%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)13.5%1.4
3. Alec Burleson (L)10.9%1.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)15.7%1.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)11.7%1.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.5%1.0
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)11.2%1.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)11.7%1.0
9. Nathan Church (L)12.0%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload10.2 BF
Expected batters faced10.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)15.2%2.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.1%1.2
3. Christian Walker (R)11.3%1.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)10.9%1.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)11.8%1.0
6. Taylor Trammell (L)11.1%1.0
7. Cam Smith (R)9.8%1.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)11.9%1.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)10.9%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-120
We project 1.2 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload15.6 BF
Expected batters faced15.6
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)12.3%2.0
2. Trea Turner (R)12.0%2.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)17.1%2.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)13.2%2.0
5. Bryson Stott (L)9.6%2.0
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)10.9%2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)11.7%1.6
8. Justin Crawford (L)7.8%1.0
9. Edmundo Sosa (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings+107-142
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 1.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.2 BF
Expected batters faced17.2
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)9.7%2.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.0%2.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)11.4%2.0
4. Maikel Garcia (R)13.6%2.0
5. Starling Marte (R)9.5%2.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)11.8%2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R)10.0%2.0
8. Carter Jensen (L)11.4%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (R)10.6%1.2
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
DKDraftKings-101-132
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 1.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.0 BF
Expected batters faced19.0
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness10.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.3%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)9.9%2.0
3. Wyatt Langford (R)11.6%2.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)10.4%2.0
5. Jake Burger (R)11.2%2.0
6. Alejandro Osuna (L)9.8%2.0
7. Cody Freeman (R)10.5%2.0
8. Nicky Lopez (L)10.3%2.0
9. Elias Díaz (R)12.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
We project 2.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.8 BF
Expected batters faced18.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.5%2.8
2. Gleyber Torres (R)11.1%2.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)11.1%2.0
4. Riley Greene (L)12.6%2.0
5. Dillon Dingler (R)14.3%2.0
6. Colt Keith (L)10.9%2.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.0%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)10.0%2.0
9. James Outman (L)11.6%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings-104-128
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Kurtz (L)15.2%3.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R)11.6%3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)12.1%3.0
4. Jacob Wilson (R)12.1%2.2
5. Carlos Cortes (L)10.3%2.0
6. Zack Gelof (R)13.9%2.0
7. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)7.1%2.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L)8.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-118
DKDraftKings-115-115
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)13.8%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)10.5%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)12.5%3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R)10.2%2.5
5. Ben Williamson (R)13.9%2.0
6. Austin Slater (R)10.6%2.0
7. Cedric Mullins (L)9.3%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)12.6%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (R)10.4%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings-106-126
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)10.7%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.1%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)15.3%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)12.0%3.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)9.7%2.8
6. Nolan Arenado (R)10.5%2.0
7. Jordan Lawlar (R)11.9%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)9.5%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-130
DKDraftKings+105-139
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)12.0%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)11.9%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)9.4%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)12.7%3.0
5. Ezequiel Tovar (R)9.1%3.0
6. Cole Carrigg (R)11.7%2.9
7. Jake McCarthy (L)9.1%2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R)13.1%2.0
9. Braxton Fulford (R)11.8%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
DKDraftKings+109-145
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)14.9%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)11.5%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.5%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)12.6%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)14.4%2.5
6. Nico Hoerner (R)8.4%2.0
7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)9.1%2.0
8. Matt Shaw (R)10.6%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)12.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings+115-153
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.6 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.2%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)10.8%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)12.9%3.0
5. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%3.0
6. Will Wagner (L)11.9%3.0
7. Ty France (R)10.3%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)11.4%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)14.5%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)14.6%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)11.1%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)12.6%3.0
5. Josh Bell (R)10.3%2.3
6. Kyler Fedko (R)11.7%2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)12.4%2.0
8. Ryan Kreidler (R)12.7%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)12.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
BOVBovada-170+130
DKDraftKings-166+125
FANFanatics-180+125
We project 2.7 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)13.3%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)13.5%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)11.8%3.0
5. A.J. Ewing (L)14.1%3.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)11.6%2.2
7. Brett Baty (L)9.7%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)11.1%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)11.3%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+123-164
FANFanatics+120-170
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)14.8%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)14.9%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)11.4%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)10.7%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)12.7%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)10.5%2.8
7. Jakob Marsee (L)11.0%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)10.5%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+130-185
DKDraftKings+128-170
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)11.2%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)14.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)13.8%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)11.7%3.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)13.6%3.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (L)13.0%2.5
7. Tyler Callihan (L)14.3%2.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)10.6%2.0
9. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-120
DKDraftKings-129-102
FANFanatics-115-125
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.0 BF
Expected batters faced25.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)13.8%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)13.6%3.0
3. Wade Meckler (L)14.6%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)13.1%3.0
5. Nolan Schanuel (L)11.5%3.0
6. Denzer Guzman (R)10.0%3.0
7. Logan O'Hoppe (R)10.9%3.0
8. Donovan Walton (L)12.0%2.0
9. Oswald Peraza (R)7.9%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140-105
DKDraftKings-127-104
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.0 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness13.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)18.5%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)13.2%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)12.3%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)15.9%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.5%2.5
6. Daylen Lile (L)14.4%2.0
7. Jacob Young (R)12.4%2.0
8. Keibert Ruiz (L)12.9%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)10.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-185+125
We project 3.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.3 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness14.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)16.8%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)13.6%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)14.6%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.2%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)15.9%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)13.7%3.0
7. Ryan Ward (L)13.8%2.1
8. Dalton Rushing (L)13.4%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+111-148
We project 3.3 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
15 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Tobias MyersP
NYM@CIN· proj #1
7ERFinal
2
Mitch SpenceP
KC@WSH· proj #19
6ERFinal
3
Ryan GustoP
MIA@PHI· proj #4
5ERFinal
T3
Kai-Wei TengP
HOUvsDET· proj #7
5ERFinal
T3
Jared JonesP
PIT@ATH· proj #8
5ERFinal
6
MacKenzie GoreP
TEXvsMIN· proj #14
4ERFinal
7
Eric LauerP
LADvsTB· proj #9
3ERFinal
T7
Walbert UreñaP
LAA@AZ· proj #10
3ERFinal
T7
Nick MartinezP
TB@LAD· proj #20
3ERFinal
10
Mike ParedesP
MIN@TEX· proj #6
2ERFinal
T10
Ryne NelsonP
AZvsLAA· proj #18
2ERFinal
12
Drew AndersonP
DET@HOU· proj #3
1ERFinal
T12
Andrew AlvarezP
WSHvsKC· proj #5
1ERFinal
T12
Shota ImanagaP
CHCvsCOL· proj #11
1ERFinal
T12
Michael LorenzenP
COL@CHC· proj #12
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
2/450%
season 52%-2 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
4/944%
season 52%-8 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
8/1942%
season building
Top 50
8/1942%
season building
Full slate
8/1942%
season 49%-7 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026
Tobias Myers (NYM) is the top earned runs spot on the Monday, June 15, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER, with Wandy Peralta (SD) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Tobias Myers
Tobias Myers (NYM) tops the Monday, June 15, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER vs CIN. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Wandy Peralta (SD) (94) — about 1.2 ER vs STL.
Drew Anderson (DET) (93) — about 1.2 ER vs HOU.
Ryan Gusto (MIA) (67) — about 1.8 ER vs PHI.
Andrew Alvarez (WSH) (66) — about 1.8 ER vs KC.
Mike Paredes (MIN) (59) — about 2.0 ER vs TEX.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 3.2 ER. Tobias Myers finished with 7. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Monday, June 15, 2026)?
Tobias Myers (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.1 ER against CIN.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Monday, June 15, 2026: Tobias Myers (~1.1 ER), Wandy Peralta (~1.2 ER), Drew Anderson (~1.2 ER), Ryan Gusto (~1.8 ER), Andrew Alvarez (~1.8 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
