Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, May 28, 2026
Top runs spot: Colt Keith
Colt Keith (DET) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. The lefty is scoring at — R/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Grayson Rodriguez has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Grayson Rodriguez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (100) vs RHP Simeon Woods Richardson: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (91) vs RHP Jack Flaherty: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (91) vs RHP Davis Martin: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (91) vs RHP Colin Rea: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (91) vs RHP Paul Skenes: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (90) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (90) vs RHP Simeon Woods Richardson: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Colt Keith finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.