Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, May 29, 2026
Top runs spot: Byron Buxton
Byron Buxton (MIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. The righty is scoring at — R/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Jared Jones has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 5 career PA against Jared Jones, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (99) vs RHP Logan Webb: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Willy Adames (SF) (99) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (96) vs RHP Lucas Giolito: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Tyler Callihan (PIT) (92) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Carson Benge (NYM) (92) vs RHP Max Meyer: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (92) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Lawrence Butler (ATH) (92) vs LHP Carlos Rodón: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 99.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Byron Buxton finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.