Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Luinder Avila. The lefty is scoring at .215 R/PA against righties this year — and .267 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 19% of his trips. And Luinder Avila has been getting lit up by righties lately — .364 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Luinder Avila, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (85) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.277), hot bat.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) (84) vs LHP Shane McClanahan: an elite bat at .177 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.117).
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (76) vs RHP Gavin Williams: an elite bat at .171 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133).
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (76) vs RHP Luinder Avila: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (75) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a strong bat at .148 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.175), hot bat.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (75) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (72) vs RHP Zack Littell: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .215 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .208 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .172 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play James Wood finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays