Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Luinder Avila. The lefty is scoring at .215 R/PA against righties this year — and .267 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 19% of his trips. And Luinder Avila has been getting lit up by righties lately — .364 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Luinder Avila, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (85) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.277), hot bat.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) (84) vs LHP Shane McClanahan: an elite bat at .177 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.117).
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (76) vs RHP Gavin Williams: an elite bat at .171 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133).
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (76) vs RHP Luinder Avila: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (75) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a strong bat at .148 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.175), hot bat.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (75) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (72) vs RHP Zack Littell: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .215 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .208 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .172 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play James Wood finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.