Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 2, 2026
Top runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Randy Vásquez. The lefty is scoring at .169 R/PA against righties this year — and .219 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Randy Vásquez has been getting lit up by righties lately — .375 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 12 career PA against Randy Vásquez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (97) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.571).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (95) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.231).
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (91) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .126 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.083), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (90) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: a strong bat at .134 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.571), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (90) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .139 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (88) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .149 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (85) vs RHP Dustin May: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.571).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .169 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .197 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .182 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays