Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 2, 2026
Top runs spot: Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The righty is scoring at .149 R/PA against righties this year — and .175 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been getting lit up by righties lately — .231 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 4 career PA against Michael Lorenzen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (99) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: a solid bat at .128 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.571).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (97) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.375).
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) (96) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.231), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (91) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .145 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (90) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.571), hot bat.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (88) vs RHP Jared Jones: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (82) vs RHP Dustin May: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.571).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .172 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .202 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
162 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.