Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, June 4, 2026
Top total bases spot: Taylor Ward
Taylor Ward (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brayan Bello. The righty is racking up bases at — TB/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And Brayan Bello has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Brayan Bello too — .429 across 14 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jarren Duran (BOS) (92) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (92) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kyle Manzardo (CLE) (92) vs LHP Carlos Rodón: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (91) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- José Ramírez (CLE) (91) vs LHP Carlos Rodón: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (88) vs RHP Lucas Giolito: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (88) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Brayan Bello has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Adley Rutschman (BAL).
- LHP Trevor Rogers has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jarren Duran (BOS), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
- RHP Slade Cecconi has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Trent Grisham (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Paul Goldschmidt (NYY).
- LHP Carlos Rodón has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Manzardo (CLE), José Ramírez (CLE), and Rhys Hoskins (CLE).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Taylor Ward finished with 4 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.